State numbers show COVID dip in cases, hospitalizations

Connecticut’s COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations dipped this week, state numbers show, suggesting the state may have passed the worst of its winter outbreak.

According to state figures, Connecticut has recorded 3,702 COVID cases over the past week, down from 4,750 the week prior and the fewest in a sevenday period since early December. The state’s positivity rate has fallen as well, from nearly 18 percent earlier this month to about 13 percent currently.

Meanwhile, state numbers show, Connecticut had 698 patients hospitalized with COVID as of Thursday, down from 761 at the same time last week.

The recent dips are roughly in line with predictions from experts, who speculated that the current outbreak would peak in mid-January, before the numbers to improve again.

“It’s expected, it’s everything we predicted,” said Dr. Ulysses Wu, chief epidemiologist at Hartford HealthCare. “We knew the parties, we knew the gatherings would increase the numbers, but the good news is that ... I’m hoping that we’ve already peaked.”

This winter’s surge has been fueled in part by the XBB.1.5 omicron subvariant, which was first detected in New England in November and now accounts for more than 70 percent of cases in the region. Though XBB.1.5 is somewhat more transmissible than its predecessors, the new bivalent boosters are believed to provide strong protection against it.

Wu said the dips in cases and hospitalizations could be evidence that Connecticut has already endured the worst of the latest subvariant.

“XBB.1.5 is obviously going to continue to spread in other parts of the country, so the country is not out of the woods, but we’re doing OK,” he said.

If Connecticut’s COVID numbers continue to improve, the state will have survived the winter without as severe a surge as it experienced each of the two previous years, when case counts set records and hospitalizations topped 1,000.

Still, Wu emphasized that COVID remains prevalent in Connecticut and a threat to vulnerable residents. This week, the state reported 60 COVID-associated deaths, nearly twice as many as in previous weeks, bringing its total during the pandemic to 11,863.

According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s “community levels” map, New Haven, Hartford, Litchfield, Middlesex, Tolland and Windham Counties all have “high” levels of COVID-19, while Fairfield and New London Counties have “medium” levels. Based on the agency’s stricter “community transmission” map, all eight counties currently have “high” transmission levels.

Last week, Connecticut’s Department of Public Health advised residents statewide to wear masks amid the COVID surge.

“To help protect themselves, their families, and our most vulnerable residents and to preserve capacity in our health care system, people are also advised to stay up to date with COVID-19 vaccines and get tested if they have symptoms,” the agency said in the statement.