THE TRUTH IN STREAKS
Which of these players will stay hot?
Remember when Nolan Reimold and Hector Santiago were the hottest assets in fantasy? That seems like eons ago. Early in the year, hot and cold streaks are magnified because it’s all we have. That Reimold hit five home runs far quicker than Albert Pujols managed to hit one had the world’s waiver wires in quite the frenzy. But now that the landscape has settled down – Pujols is still Pujols, for example – some of the midseason hot players get lost in the shuffle. Let’s take a look at who has been successful lately, and who will keep it up.
R.A. DICKEY, SP
Dickey (79% owned in Yahoo!, 95% ESPN) never gets the credit he deserves. Heck, the knuckleballer climbs mountains, so cruising through the lineups ought to be a breeze. I was on board with what he had done in the past – mid-3 ERA with a low K-rate – but now he’s added a serious weapon: strikeouts. I don’t pretend to be an expert in knuckleball movement, but whatever Dickey is doing this year, it’s working. Entering Saturday’s start, his K-rate had jumped from 5.78 per nine innings to 8.49 and he had backed it up with a 3% gain in swinging strike rate. Believe it or not, Dickey is a must-own even in shallow leagues.
DEXTER FOWLER, OF
Many fantasy writers had a preseason love affair with Fowler (58% Yahoo!, 55% ESPN), but where has the affection gone? He’s been money as of late, and has started batting at the top of the Rockies order as well. I am not lying when I write this: Dexter Fowler has eight home runs. Not sure what to make of it, but it can’t be a bad sign. The steals will be there and so will the runs.
DAYAN VICIEDO, OF
Hitters with a K/BB ratio of 10/1 are going to have a tough time sustaining success for an extended period of time. Viciedo (66% Yahoo!, 96% ESPN) is no different from anyone else, and a slump is bound to come at some point during the season that will have fantasy owners running for the hills. The power is tempting, but if it can be found elsewhere, I’d avoid Viciedo.
JAMES MCDONALD, SP
Wouldn’t have bothered including McDonald (76% Yahoo!, 100% ESPN) except for the fact that 24% of Yahoo! leagues apparently have no clue what’s going on. He’s for real, and any league where he isn’t owned isn’t a league worth playing in.
HOMER BAILEY, SP
Wins i n his last three starts will boost his ownership percentages, but Bailey (14% Yahoo!, 15% ESPN) is still just a prized prospect that never lived up to the hype. I’d actually expect his K’s to rise given the 9.9% swinging strike rate, but a SIERA over 4 puts him more in the range of where I’d expect him to be. A fine fill-in for deeper leagues but nothing else.
JUSTIN SMOAK, 1B
Wish I could say otherwise, but Smoak (18% Yahoo!, 12% ESPN) hasn’t shown anything beyond this hot week that suggests he’s turned the corner. He’ll continue to be the low-average, decent-power, low-counting-stats guy that he always was. Don’t bother.
DAN HAREN, SP
Last two starts: 16 IP, 1 ER, 21 Ks. Means nothing except that I wanted to say, I told you so about Haren (97% Yahoo!, 100% ESPN).
MICHAEL BRANTLEY, OF
Always liked Brantley (Yahoo! 20%, 55% ESPN) and thought his speed could eventually be a big asset to fantasy owners. His .306 BABIP might actually be a little low given his 22.8% line-drive rate and the notable wheels. Obviously, he won’t hit any home runs, but soon will match his steals total from last season (13). Worth a grab if you need help in steals.