Bear-wrestling in Kiev
The fragile deal that holds the hope of ending bloody days in Ukraine offers President Obama and European leaders a second chance to influence the future of this strategically important country for the better. France, Germany and Poland brokered the arrangement after days of violence in the streets of Kiev and across the country. Importantly, they did so without the formal sign-off of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The arrangement calls for trimming the power of President Viktor Yanukovych and holding an early presidential election, while a separate vote in the parliament should lead to the release of jailed opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko.
Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, who helped forge the agreement, issued a dire warning to an opposition leader who was considering whether or not to take the deal.
“If you don’t support this, you’ll have martial law, the army. You will all be dead,” he said.
There’s every reason to take the warning seriously, because Yanukovych has played a brutal game in league with Putin, who is determined to keep Ukraine squarely within Russia’s orbit.
In November, Yanukovych was on the verge of signing a trade deal with Europe when Putin came calling with the carrot of a $15 billion credit line and the stick of shutting off the natural gas line that supplies most of the 46 million Ukrainians with power.
Yanukovych’s turnaround stunned Washington and Europe and prompted protests in Ukraine. Those remained peaceful right up until Yanukovych went to see Putin at Sochi, where the Olympics have doubled as the strongman’s propaganda festival.
Upon the Ukrainian president’s return, he had police turn shotguns, sniper rifles and more on citizens massed in Kiev’s Independence Square, murdering at least 70 and bringing the country to the brink of civil war.
Yanukovych’s Russian masters responded with enthusiasm. Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev advised Yanukovych not to let up, but rather to take whatever steps were needed to ensure “people don’t wipe their feet on them like a doormat.”
The new deal emerged just as Yanukovych appeared ready to bring in the military to slaughter his own citizens and drag his nation into civil war. Though Russia took part in the negotiations, it ominously refused to sign the accord.
Make no mistake, Putin is not going away, nor is his bloody gamesmanship at an end. Assuming Ukrainians at large accept the deal, the onus will be on Obama and other Western leaders to more than hold their own in a struggle with the bear.