Bill’s dream houses

To a 2013 mayoral candidate polling at 11%, promising to build 50,000 new affordable apartments as if by fiat must have been irresistible — forget that the figure bore as little resemblance to reality as My Little Pony. Now that he’s running the city, Bill de Blasio is coming around to admit that his vaunted “mandatory inclusionary zoning” will not come close to hitting that mark.

Aides refuse to release new projections, guesstimating a figure in the ballpark of “several thousand,” perhaps 15,000 or more if the stars align.

The gap between promise and reality is not merely a case of exaggerated political rhetoric. De Blasio’s signature housing program calls for preserving 120,000 affordable units and building 80,000 apartments over 10 years.

The mayor recently boosted already high city subsidies to achieve his goal, jumping from an initially promised $6.7 billion to $7.5 billion in his latest capital plan, including $2 billion for new construction. The bill could grow more still if his zoning plan falls short, the magic of having developers pay for affordable housing giving way to taxpayers footing bigger bills.

Mandatory inclusionary zoning requires developers to set aside some apartments for lower-income tenants in new projects. De Blasio would enable developers to build bigger buildings in specified neighborhoods, thereby giving them the financial wherewithal to hold rents down in a percentage of apartments.

Starting next month, the mayor will ask all 59 community boards, the borough presidents, the City Planning Commission and the City Council to require that anytime they allow for bigger, taller residential real estate, anywhere in the city, affordable housing must be part of the deal for any project built.

Deputy Mayor Alicia Glen and city planners have crafted a working model whose ambition appears towering at first blush. Between 25% and 30% of new apartments in the designated zones would carry prices affordable to tenants earning between (for a family of three) $47,000 and $93,000 a year.

But keep in mind: many of those apartments will also benefit from other government aid — including city tax abatements and federal housing finance programs, each of which require their own set-asides of affordable apartments. That leaves de Blasio in many instances with hopes of adding 5% or 10% — not 20% or 30%.

In admitting that the numbers he breezily promised as a candidate will fall far short, de Blasio is moving from the grandiose to the pragmatic — for him, an accomplishment, no matter where his housing numbers end up.