Ratings decline could throw
EVEN THE National Football League would not try selling the notion the next installment of Thursday Night Football, Jaguars-Titans, will mark the beginning of a turnaround for the league’s declining TV ratings. The suits would better serve the unwashed masses by promoting the tilt as a temporary cure for insomnia.
Anyway, all the NFL’s TV packages are taking a ratings hit. The exodus of eyeballs from NFL football has triggered a run on theories as to why the ratings have fallen and can’t get up. Yes, the poor, poor NFL owners, along with Roger Goodell & the league’s TV operatives, are the beneficiaries of all these reasons why the digits are down around an average of 11%.
Don’t pity the suits. The ratings are down but won’t stop the NFL from collecting $5 billion a year in rights fees for an underperforming product from its network partners in a deal that runs through the 2022 season. Get it? One way or another, a player will suffer for not getting it done on the field. When it comes to the NFL coming up short on the TV ratings side, there is no immediate price to pay. Or is there? While the list of reasons why NFL TV ratings have dropped this season expands, what short-term impact does the decline really have on the league and its TV partners?
If the slide continues, and if they haven’t already, the networks airing NFL games will have to provide companies advertising their products on the telecasts “make-goods.” A network guarantees a certain number of viewers will tune in to watch a game. If the guaranteed number is not reached, the network must “make-good” by offering the advertiser free commercial time in other programming.
If the downward ratings trend continues, it will affect what the networks can charge advertisers for NFL spots next season. For example, a 30-second spot on “TNF” costs around $523,000. If the “TNF” ratings continue slipping it’s reasonable to believe the price of a 30-second commercial will drop for the 2017 season. The same rate decrease would hold true for other network’s NFL TV packages if the ratings continue to fall.
There are also immediate perception problems for the NFL to consider. The NFL leaps from crisis to crisis. From Deflategate to anthem protests to domestic violence, all of which are reported on, discussed and dissected by the media. Now, unusually, the average fan, along with Gasbags from coast to coast, have turned the shortfall in NFL viewership into a hot topic. Weekly ratings are discussed as regularly as point spreads.
And all these conversations stimulate discussions on “what’s wrong with the game.” This is not what the NFL wants or needs.
While the NFL’s current TV contract has seven years left before it expires, networks are likely already lobbying for the league to implement flexible scheduling (NBC already has it