THE SLEEPERS
We give you the breakout players of 2017 to target in your draft
The search for the ultimate fantasy baseball value performers has brought you here, to this page. These unheralded and under-drafted performers can provide quite a boost to your team this season, allowing you to supplement your prime picks with better-than-expected performances from the depths of the later rounds. Highlight these names on your cheat sheets, and you'll look like the smartest owner in your draft room.
Tommy Joseph, 1B, Phillies
The Ryan Howard Era is finally over in Philadelphia, but Joseph should settle in nicely as a new source of power. A former catching prospect, he was moved to first base because of concussion issues, and now his bat has a chance to stay there. Joseph bopped 21 home runs in just 315 at-bats last season, and while veteran pitchers could expose his weaknesses over a complete season, he has the talent to mash 30 homers with a batting average better than .260.
Logan Forsythe, 2B, Dodgers
The second base position seems to be deep this year, so if you wait until the later double-digit rounds, you can still pluck some gems. The Dodgers may have finally found some second base stability with new acquisition Forsythe, who hit 37 home runs over the past two seasons, yet still seems to escape the eye-level evaluations of many fantasy owners. He had a careerbest hard-hit rate of 36 percent last season and will vie for the leadoff job after scoring 76 runs in 2016, also a career high. Forsythe won't kill your batting average and offers terrific value as a run producer.
Tim Anderson, SS, White Sox
Chicago is high on 23-year-old Anderson, who stole 49 bases in Double-A in 2015. He struck out 27.1 percent of the time in the majors last year, but still managed to hit .283 with nine homers and 10 steals in 99 games. Chicago is confident Anderson has matured both mentally and physically this offseason and that he knows he has to get on base more frequently. He's a great athlete who seems to know where he must improve, and he has the upside to deliver 12 homers and 30-plus steals this year.
Nick Castellanos, 3B, Tigers
Castellanos was headed for a real breakout season last year before a broken hand cut his campaign short. He was hitting for more power than ever, as evidenced by his career-best .212 Isolated Power percentage (ISO). His ground ball rates dipped and he started hitting the ball in the air more and harder than ever. The real bustout campaign could come this year for Castellanos, who has a chance to hit 25-plus homers and deliver a respectable batting average. Grab him when the very elite and top-level third baseman are gone.
Asdrubal Cabrera, SS, Mets
He is seriously undervalued, as most fantasy owners don't believe what they saw from him last year. Maybe he is not a sleeper in the classic sense because some people did notice last year’s production, but he is fundamentally a sleeper because he is going to return terrific production relative to his late-round draft position. Cabrera's HR/FB rate jumped from 8.7 to 14.0 percent last year and there may be many nonbelievers. Last year, though, he hit the ball harder than ever before and Cabrera could prove he is no fluke.
Ender Inciarte, OF, Braves
How bad were the Braves last year? So bad that you may not have noticed just how good Inciarte was during the second
half. He made himself a useful piece going forward for Atlanta, hitting .341 with 52 runs scored. Over a full season this year, you could deliver a .300 batting average, 90 runs scored and 25 stolen bases, too. Inciarte stole 16 last year and could be better overall in most categories in 2017.
Brandon Drury, 2B, Diamondbacks
Arizona used Drury at a few positions in an impressive rookie year, and now seems set to hand him the second base job after the power promise he flashed last season. He popped 16 homers in 461 at-bats, and his plate approach should improve this season. He struck out 20 percent of the time at the MLB level last year but his minor league track record suggests he can provide a stable batting average as well if he plays regularly.
Tyler Flowers, C, Braves
Flowers traded in his usual mid-teens HR power for a career-high .270 batting average, 38 points above his .232 career mark. His BABIP was very high, but so was his hard-hit rate, and he started pulling the ball less, so he has obviously reworked himself as a hitter. The Braves have already confirmed him as their starting catcher, and if you get him very late, he can provide solid power if he stays healthy, and there is promise for some stability across the board.
Robbie Ray, SP, Diamondbacks
Lots of fantasy owners may steer clear of Ray, his 8-15 record and his 4.90 ERA, but all the peripherals point to him being a real turnaround candidate in a big way. His outrageous .352 BABIP was 41 points higher than it had been a year earlier. He also had an unlucky 68.7 percent strand rate. Add in his 3.76 FIP and 11.25 K/9 and there are plenty of signs that Ray’s surface numbers hid a quality pitcher who can offer real improvements in 2017.
Ivan Nova, SP, Pirates
Most Yankee fans remember Nova as an erratic and unreliable starter, but he looked like a different hurler in Pittsburgh, where heralded pitching coach Ray Searage often does wonders with new acquisitions. In 11 starts for the Bucs, Nova fashioned a 3.06 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. Nova may not sparkle quite that much in a full season with Pittsburgh, but he could definitely produce the best marks of his career now that he’s set to spend an entire season facing off against the National League.
Adam Conley, SP, Marlins
Simply put, baseball insiders absolutely love this guy and were looking for him to break out last season. He may just burst onto the scene a year late, as experienced observers still constantly rave about his stuff. According to one former front office exec turned broadcaster, Conley possesses a competitive motor that reminds people of Chris Sale. Staying healthy this year could help Conley start to flourish, and at his best, he could deliver tidy ERA and WHIP totals in a friendly home park.
Robert Gsellman, SP, Mets
He is penciled in as the Mets' fifth starter, yet outside of Queens, fantasy players either don’t know enough about him or they consider him a placeholder for Zack Wheeler. Gsellman has good command and a quality minor league track record of friendly ERAs and lower walk rates. Health is certainly an issue with the Mets starters so Gsellman can be a solid addition to the end of your staff, even if his K/9 rates from last year dip a bit, as projected. He has the underrated Dan Warthen as his pitching coach, so he’s destined to provide real friendly return late in drafts.
Hector Neris, RP, Phillies
He struck out 102 batters in 80.1 innings last year, displaying the kind of dominant form that could make him a very effective closer. Neris can hit 94 mph on the gun, and as long as he can keep his walk rates reined in, he can wrest the job from Jeanmar Gomez, who started to come apart down the stretch last season. Gomez was a nice surprise early on last season, but Neris is definitely more dominant and in the classic closer mold.
Matt Bush, RP, Rangers
Sam Dyson is expected to begin the season as the Rangers' closer, but he doesn't miss bats as often as Bush, and he relies heavily on ground balls and sinking action to get the job done. Of legitimate concern is that Dyson's strikeout rate slipped last year and he had a very high strand rate. Bush held opposing batters to a .196 average last season and struck out 61 batters in 61.2 innings last year. If Dyson slips at all, Bush could take over as the Rangers' new finisher.