Hard lesson for Ryan and his President
The House’s debate over repealing the Affordable Care Act ended, at least for now, when the bill was pulled from the floor by House Speaker Paul Ryan. For Ryan, the struggle to pass the bill reveals several challenges of being speaker in the current Congress, none of which are going away soon.
First, it shows that experience can matter. Republicans last controlled the House, Senate and the presidency in 2006, meaning that it’s been nearly a decade since the party’s congressional leaders faced the task of delivering votes on a “must pass” measure to be signed by a co-partisan executive.
Of the top members of the House Republican leadership team, few were serving in similar roles then; Majority Whip Steve Scalise and Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy weren’t even in the chamber yet. Winning takes practice.
The fight also demonstrates that unified party control isn’t a panacea. After the 2016 election, initial signs suggested that congressional Republicans might be able to overcome the internal divisions that had plagued their party.
The fight over the AHCA has demonstrated that it might not be that easy. The House Freedom Caucus, likely driven by a desire to prove its continued relevance, proved influential. Its members come from safe Republican districts where Trump is thought to be quite popular, and many believed that the group would have less leverage with leadership with Trump in the White House.
The health care fight suggests otherwise. Without the option of making deals with Democrats, the group’s opposition, which came in early, strong and with the backing of key conservative interest groups, was enough to drive much of the debate over the bill.
House conservatives’ ability to exert leverage on the bill was also likely helped by the fact that Trump’s heart was never fully in the battle. While he did host members at the White House, and went to Capitol Hill himself to rally his troops, he did very little public outreach on behalf of the legislation, especially compared to President Obama in 2009 and 2010.
If he wants to try and maintain his self-presentation as a dealmaker, he’ll need to adjust. Problematically, however, the President’s ability to persuade members of Congress to do things they might otherwise not want to do is often tied to his approval rating. Trump remains quite unpopular.
Reynolds is a fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution.