GOPers say moderate woman would be ideal foe vs. slumping Andy

ALBANY — Two former top state Republican officials say Gov. Cuomo is vulnerable, but argued the GOP will need a viable moderate to defeat him.

“Preferably a woman,” said one of the well-known Republicans.

New York’s heavily Democratic makeup is going to make it difficult for a conservative Republican — particularly in the age of President Trump — to take down Cuomo (photo inset), even as his poll numbers drop because of the downstate mass transit crisis and continued unpopularity in large swaths of upstate counties, said the GOPer.

“I can’t believe there isn’t a vulnerability there, and if the Republicans had any kind of an organization, they’d run a viable moderate, centrist candidate that would push him hard,” he said. “I just don’t know if any exist.”

The Republicans have not won a statewide race since George Pataki won reelection to a third term as governor in 2002. The GOP source said the party needs a candidate who can take advantage of a growing unhappiness with Cuomo among some Democrats and independents.

“The demographics of New York have changed,” said the second former state official. “The population loss from upstate has eaten into the Republican base and the demographics on Long Island have changed.”

Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino, a conservative who lost to Cuomo in 2014 and is considering another run in 2018, “doesn’t fit the profile you’re going to need,” the first Republican said.

Neither, he said, do state Senate Deputy Majority Leader John DeFrancisco (R-Syracuse), who has indicated he is considering a run, or Buffalo businessman Carl Paladino, a flamethrower in the mold of Trump who was creamed by Cuomo in 2010.

With nearly $26 million already in his campaign coffers, Cuomo has a massive fund-raising advantage. The former Republican leader believes enough money to compete can be raised, especially if national money flows. Otherwise, the GOP will need a selffunder.

Business turnaround expert Harry Wilson, who ran for state controller in 2010 and lost, is considering a gubernatorial run. He has the money to at least partially fund his campaign. “I haven’t seen the ‘it’ factor with Wilson,” the Republican source said. “That thing that makes you think, ‘Yeah, this guy can do it.’ That doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist, I just haven’t seen it.” One line of thinking is that a moderate candidate won’t be able to win the conservativedominated Republican primary. “The message would be, ‘Give our candidate a chance to govern. You’d be surprised. We have more in common than we are unalike,’ ” the first former Republican leader said. Added the second: “You have to work and make the case and talk about electability in November.” GOP consultant Jessica Proud disagreed with the idea that a conservative can’t win statewide. She noted Astorino has won election twice in Democratic-heavy Westchester County and said, “There are a lot of potentially good candidates.”

She also argues that even if the party can avoid a primary, a more moderate candidate runs the risk of suppressing turnout among the conservative base of the party or even splitting the ticket if the small but influential state Conservative Party picks a different candidate for its line.

“You need someone who can appeal to people, but it’s less about checking every box of where you are,” Proud said. “It’s can you build an infrastructure and run a race that will fit the mold of winning upstate, doing decent in the suburbs, and getting 30- to 35% in the city.”

“You can’t be Democrat-light and think you’re going to drive out those numbers.”