Fearlessly seize the con con chance
Aballot measure this Election Day will offer New Yorkers a oncein-20-years chance to call a constitutional convention, the first in half a century. Take it. And tune out the fearmongering by lobbying groups determined to protect Albany’s ugly status quo. When one examines the facts, instead of caving to panic, it’s clear that there’s nothing to be afraid of — and much to gain — by voting yes on Nov. 7.
As progressive political activists, we are convinced a constitutional convention is a path to advancement for New York. Why? Because the numbers are overwhelmingly on our side — with majority-Democratic delegates a near certainty and any proposals they produce set for an up-ordown vote among an electorate where Democrats form a powerful 2-1 majority.
Virtually everything New Yorkers can be proud of in our Constitution comes from a prior constitutional convention. In 1938, New Yorkers voted for delegates who ultimately enshrined collective bargaining rights, guaranteed state pensions and the right to an education, and provided for the needy. The 1894 convention created “Forever Wild” protection for the Adirondacks. In the 1821 convention, black men were given the vote.
Meanwhile, no constitutional convention has ever removed rights or protections.
A 2019 convention would present a host of opportunities to add protections and fix flaws in our government.
We can create a right to health care in our state, guarantee gender and queer equality, reform the Legislature to be a full-time body, and mandate ethics reforms. New York can make voting easier by allowing early voting and automatic registration.
The most widely heard argument from convention opponents is that wealthy business lobbyists will demolish the Constitution’s strong pension protections, stripping rights from workers.
Nonsense. Big business would be wasting their money by plotting such an attack against New York unions’ overwhelming political strength. Our state has the highest union enrollment in the country, at 23.6% of all workers.
The case for a convention only becomes clearer with deeper drilling into the electoral numbers.
If New York voters decide this November to hold a convention, they will elect 204 delegates in 2018 who will meet, deliberate and vote on changes to the Constitution. (After the convention, all changes approved by the delegates will face statewide yes-orno votes in a general election.)
Who will those 204 delegates be? Most are elected by state Senate district. Fifteen will be elected statewide — and we believe Democrats will win those seats. No Republican has won statewide in 15 years.
Each of the 63 Senate districts will elect three delegates. One could assume that these would mirror the makeup of the Senate — which has 23 Democrats, 31 Republicans, one Democrat who caucuses with the Republicans, and eight Independent Democratic Conference members who support the Republican leadership.
But there are good reasons to think the convention delegates will not follow the Senate’s partisan split. One is the way that Senate districts voted for President in 2016. Let’s say that every delegate in a Senate district that voted for Hillary Clinton with a Democratic state senator would be a Democrat.
Let’s also assume that every delegate in a Donald Trump-majority district would be a Republican, and that all nine Senate districts that have a Republican senator but went for Clinton would split, electing two Democratic delegates for every Republican. The result would be 126 Democratic delegates, counting the statewide reps, versus 78 Republicans.
Alternatively, we could presume that voters will generally choose delegates from the same party as they did for state senator, then adjust that result based on projections for the two parties’ relative strength in the 2018 congressional races.
The FiveThirtyEight.com average of these polls shows a 10-point advantage for Democrats.
This translates into 108 Democratic delegates elected from districts that pick Democratic senators, minus eight seats in case the IDC senators or their proxies are elected to the convention. Add the 15 statewide delegates and this projection yields 115 fullfledged Democrats — still a strong majority.
Progressives will win a decisive majority in a convention, one which will let us make changes our Legislature has proven incapable of making. Vote yes and watch what we can do.