Tough decisions await Joe
PRESUMING the Red Sox don’t have a monumental choke in them over the next several days, we’ve come to a lull in the proceedings before the postseason begins next week for the Yankees.
They’re all but locked into hosting the wild-card game against the Twins, which will make for high drama, even if it is something of a gimmicky, made-for-TV way to decide a team’s postseason fate.
Much as Joe Girardi said a couple of days ago, I’ve always thought 2-out-3 would be the fairer way, after 162 regular-season games, of determining the wild-card winner.
The counter-argument, of course, is that the wild-card teams had 162 games to avoid being put in such a position, and for the Yankees, their second-place status in the AL East comes down largely to their ballyhooed bullpen blowing 23 save opportunities — tied for the thirdhighest total in the AL this season.
But with Aroldis Chapman seemingly on track again and Chad Green now being assimilated into the late-inning mix, the bullpen still looms as a huge reason this team could go deep into October.
Meanwhile, with Aaron Judge scorching hot again, the Yankees seem to have a lot of pieces falling into place at the right time, and probably wish the postseason could start this week rather than next.
There are games still to play, however, that could influence decisions Joe Girardi needs to make. With that in mind, here are the Top Five questions hovering over this team with the playoffs approaching, and some answers as well.
Luis Severino starts the wildcard game, no ifs, ands, or buts. Girardi isn’t about to gamble on any other scenario that might improve the Yankees’ chances in a division series, even if John Smoltz on MLB Network endorsed the idea of saving Severino with that in mind.
“You’re in a one-game playoff, and the season’s over if you don’t win that game,” Girardi said on Tuesday. “That’s the bottom line. So, to me, that’s awful risky.”
Can’t argue with that. As tempting as it might be to try and save Severino for a Game 1 matchup with, say, Corey Kluber, Girardi would look like a dope if Sonny Gray got knocked around by the Twins and the Yankees lost the wild-card game.
So if they do advance, Gray is lined up to start Game 1 in the ALDS, and you’d have to think Masahiro Tanaka would go Game 2. Severino would get Game 3 on regular rest, and I think the Yankees would go with CC Sabathia in a Game 4 rather than Gray on short rest.
This is the one question that may be largely influenced by these last handful of games, as Dellin Betances will get opportunities to show he’s smoothed out his most recent command issues.
Lately, Girardi has been using Green, his strikeout machine, in the seventh inning to get to David Robertson and then Chapman, and that would work fine in the postseason.
Betances is too much of a weapon to cast aside, however, and if he’s right it would allow Girardi to use Green as more of a mid-game wildcard of sorts — a la Andrew Miller for the Tribe last year.
Still, Betances’ career-high 43 walks in 57.2 innings make him something of a scary proposition. His 99 strikeouts are proof he can usually overcome the walks, but not always. Will Girardi trust him? This probably comes down to Chase Headley vs. Matt Holliday, because if it’s Twins/Indians the Yankees will be seeing all righthanded starters. And Headley is almost certainly going to get the nod.
He’s had a strong second half, hitting .312 with an .860 OPS, and as a switch-hitter he hits righthanded pitching better than lefties. Holliday, meanwhile, has hit only .177 in the second half, while missing time due to a viral condition and then a back injury.
Of course, there could be a wrinkle that forces Girardi to choose between Headley or Todd Frazier at third base. In that case, he clearly prefers Frazier’s defense and power, but that would only come into play based on this question:
The manager has made a point lately of saying that Sanchez has worked hard to improve his defense behind the plate, but I have a feeling that come the playoffs his own catching instincts will take over and he’ll turn to Austin Romine.
Particularly in the one-game wild-card scenario, I think Girardi will be scared that even one passed ball, which has been Sanchez’s weakness, could prove costly, and he’ll feel safer with Romine.
Obviously knowing he can use Sanchez at DH makes that decision easier.
Didn’t seem possible a month or so ago, but Jacoby Ellsbury is a lock to be in center field, even with Aaron Hicks healthy again.
Reduced to little more than a pinch-hitter earlier this season, Ellsbury lately has looked more like the player the Yankees thought they were getting for that crazy $153-million contract, hitting .361 in September with a .993 OPS.
The only intrigue will be how much Girardi uses Hicks and Clint Frazier to hit for either Ellsbury or Brett Gardner against lefthanded pitching, particularly Miller if the Yankees face the Indians.