Trump’s worse than pointless Iran move
The heated debate in 2015 surrounding the Iran nuclear agreement generated demagoguery, political and personal attacks, and schisms across political, religious and ideological lines. I was well aware that my decision to support the agreement would be heavily scrutinized.
As I said then, “It is a decision that I have taken my time to consider, knowing the stakes are too high to allow for anything but clear-headed and thoughtful analysis, with an acute awareness that there are sharply divided opinions and passionate feelings on both sides.”
I certainly never envisioned a future where a President might decertify or pull out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action absent any significant evidence of Iran’s non-compliance or violation of the agreement. Yet that is the scenario we now face as President Trump decertifies Iran’s compliance with the JCPOA — compliance that has been verified by the International Atomic Energy Agency, our European partners, the American intelligence, military and diplomatic agencies, and even President Trump himself.
If all intelligence, military and diplomatic analyses have determined that Iran is complying with the nuclear agreement, we can only assume that Trump’s decertification is based on something else.
Maybe it is the fact that he never liked the deal, made repeated campaign promises to pull out of it and hates being forced to regularly recertify Iran’s compliance.
Or maybe it is his ego telling him that his generals are wrong, our allies are wrong, international inspectors are wrong, Republicans and Democrats who voted against the agreement but now insist that it would be a catastrophic mistake to pull out are wrong, and he alone is right.
It would be foolish to believe the President’s justifications when he says that Iran’s conduct outside of the nuclear agreement — its testing of ballistic missiles, its support for terrorism, its human rights abuses — and the sunsets on certain JCPOA restrictions warrant decertification.
If the President really thought that the JCPOA was disastrous to U.S. strategic interests, he would not be punting it to Congress to make the decision to re-impose sanctions and pull out of the agreement. If he really believed what he said, he would not have extended the waivers on Iran’s sanctions just last month.
If he really wanted to undo the deal, the President could immediately and unilaterally engage “snapback” sanctions through the UN Security Council. But he doesn’t — so he must believe the deal has its usefulness.
If the President has problems with Iran’s nefarious and illicit non-nuclear activities, his administration has so far done little to use the authority given to him by Congress to counter Iran’s actions or to enforce consequences for Iran’s bad behavior.
When I voted in support of the agreement, I expressed grave concerns with items it didn’t covered. I raised these concerns directly with President Obama, and was personally guaranteed that his administration would implement and enforce non-nuclear sanctions against Iranian persons and entities engaged in such actions.
For all of President Trump’s usual bravado, however, Iran’s regional influence continues to expand, and its illegal activities continue unabated.
The decision to decertify is also counterproductive to any attempt to extend the JCPOA’s sunsets on certain nuclear restrictions — because decertification will lead to the loss of our international partners and the loss of our credibility to follow through on agreements, and leave no means short of military intervention to compel the Iranians back to the table.
It is also a win for Tehran, which keeps the deal’s financial and diplomatic benefits while the U.S. is on the outside looking in — unable to monitor and enforce JCPOA restrictions and without partners to exert additional pressure on Iran.
On both nuclear and non-nuclear fronts, decertification puts us in a worse position, and does nothing to address existing serious issues. Iran remains a grave threat to security in the region, to our allies, and to U.S. strategic interests.
Yet this administration continues its made-for-TV political games. That is what we get with a President who doesn’t take these issues seriously, and who shows little reason for others to take him seriously aside from threatened mutually assured destruction.
That is very serious indeed.