FEELING DRAFT
Like it or not, Mets will have to spend because there’s nothing down on the farm
Mets’ farm system is so bad they have no choice but to spend on free agents ... if they want to compete
FIRST things first: As I’ve been writing since last fall, there is no way the Mets can justify not spending significantly on free agents this offseason in this win-now window of theirs that is still open if they ever get lucky with injuries.
And if their offseason haul turns out to be nothing more than Anthony Swarzak and, say, Adam Lind, in addition to re-signing Jose Reyes to play second base, Sandy Alderson is going to be pelted with more payroll questions, no matter how testy he gets on the subject.
Maybe owners Jeff and Fred Wilpon will react to the growing criticism of their intention to lower that payroll, as they have in the past, and realize what a mistake it would be not to spend after they had some $60 million in expiring contracts — more if you add in the savings of the salarydump trades of last summer and insurance money on David Wright.
The slow-moving free- agent market is still so stocked with players, as all teams are waiting for prices to come down, that it’s too early to pass definitive judgment.
In the meantime, it’s worth looking at the root cause for the Mets’ predicament: They’re in a position where they need to spend because their farm system is so weak at the upper levels, offering little in the way of major-league ready talent or prospects they can trade.
Alderson has admitted as much, and there’s no mystery to it: His drafts, going back to 2011, his first season on the job, have produced precious few impact players.
For the moment, in fact, Michael Conforto is the only star-type player to have emerged from the Alderson drafts. Other than Michael Fulmer, that is, and the Mets dealt him to the Tigers for Yoenis Cespedes in 2015.
But let’s get that narrative, which I’ve read and heard plenty this offseason, out of the way right now: Yes, the Mets gave up several minor leaguers in trades to boost their playoff seasons of 2015 and ’16, but, Fulmer aside, those deals aren’t a factor in explaining their weak farm system.
In addition to Cespedes, the Mets in 2015 traded for Kelly Johnson, Juan Uribe, Tyler Clippard, Addison Reed, and Jerry Blevins.
In those trades they gave up pitchers John Gant, Robert Whalen, Casey Meisner, Miller Diaz, and Matt Koch, and outfielder Matt den dekker. They also gave up Luis Cessa as part of the Cespedes trade.
None of those players are appear in any of the Top 20 or 25 prospects lists for their current teams.
In 2016, the Mets made significant trades for Jay Bruce, Kelly Johnson (again) and Fernando Salas.
In those deals they gave up Max Wotell, Dilson Herrera, Akeel Morris, and Erik Manoa. Wotell is a 21-yearold lefty with some potential who missed most of last season with arm injuries, and Herrera, once billed as the future second baseman for the Mets, has fallen off the radar in the Reds’ organization.
Again, as in the 2015 trades, none of players the Mets gave up in ’16 appear in any list of top prospects for their current organizations.
So while Fulmer obviously was a big loss, in a trade that transformed their World Series season, it’s the only one of any real significance.
No, the problem is simply that the Mets haven’t drafted well. And it should be noted that highly-regarded shortstop Amed Rosario was an international free agent, signed out of the Dominican Republic. In addition, the farm system received a major boost from Alderson’s trade of R.A. Dickey for Travis d’Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard. Even if d’Arnaud never completely realizes the potential the Mets saw in him, the GM deserves kudos for essentially stealing Syndergaard from the Blue Jays.
He also turned free agent-to-be Carlos Beltran into Zack Wheeler in 2011, and though Wheeler’s potential is in question these days, that too was a smart trade.
Throw in Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey and Steven Matz, and minor-league system evaluators are quick to point out that the Mets graduated a lot of high-end pitching talent to the majors during Alderson’s tenure, and that’s certainly true, but deGrom, Harvey and Matz had already been drafted by former GM Omar Minaya, so none of it came from the current GM’s drafts.
Alderson did hit on a couple of late-round gems in his first draft with the Mets, in 2011, getting Robert Gsellman as a 13th-rounder out of high school in Los Angeles, and Seth Lugo way down in the 34th round out of Centenary College.
Obviously Alderson isn’t out doing the scouting or even making the call on most of the draft picks, but as the GM overseeing his scouting staff, he gets the credit for such picks — and the blame for so many others.
Most notably, his first two No. 1 picks, Brandon Nimmo at No. 13 overall in 2011, and Gavin Cecchini at No. 12 overall in 2012, haven’t lived up to their signing bonuses of $2.1 million and $2.3 million, respectively.
Dom Smith was the No. 11 overall pick in 2013, signing for $2.6 million, and though he wasn’t impressive after his call-up last August, hitting .191, some scouts think he still has a chance to be an impact hitter in the big leagues.
Alderson hit it big on Conforto, the No. 10 overall pick in 2014, signing him for $2.97 million, and in 2015 the Mets forfeited their No. 1 pick due to the free-agent signing of Michael Cuddyer — a major miscalculation in retrospect.
Finally, it’s too soon to tell on their most recent first-round picks, college pitchers Justin Dunn (No. 19) from Boston College and Anthony Kay (No. 31) from UConn in 2016, and David Peterson (No. 20) from Oregon.
But the bigger issue is that, aside from a Gsellman and Lugo here, and a Chris Flexen (14th round, 2012) there, the Mets just haven’t uncovered enough impact talent from the hundreds of players they’ve drafted during the Alderson regime.
Take a look, for example, at their second and third-round picks from 2011-’15: Matt Reynolds, Teddy Stankiewicz, Matt Koch, Andrew Church, Ivan Wilson, Casey Meisner, Milton Ramos, Desmond Lindsay, and Max Wotell.
Of those, only Reynolds has reached the majors, with the Mets or another organization, and he doesn’t project as more than a utlity infielder.
Furthermore, from the 2013 draft, Smith is the only player to reach the majors, and no one other than shortstop Luis Guillmore is among their top 25 prospects. And other than Conforto, not a single player drafted in 2014 is among T their top 30 prospects. he result is that of the top six current prospects in the Mets’ system, as rated by Baseball America this offseason, No. 1 Andres Gimenez is a 19-year-old international signing and four others were draft picks in 2016 and ’17.
The only one of those top prospects drafted before 2016, lefty pitcher Thomas Szapucki, a fifth-round pick in 2015, underwent Tommy John surgery last summer.
In short, there’s not much immediate help on the way. The Mets’ scouting system simply hasn’t delivered during the Alderson regime, which may at least partly explain the recent decision to bring Minaya back as an assistant to Alderson. He came from a scouting background, going back to signing Sammy Sosa out of the Dominican Republic for the Texas Rangers in the 1980s, and we know now Minaya oversaw the drafting of a lot of impact talent during his years as Mets’ GM. Maybe his presence will help. In the meantime, if the Mets want to win in 2018, they better spend on free agents.