How to support Iran’s protesters

Iran is in the throes of arguably the most serious challenge faced by its clerical regime. What to do about it? From its inception in 1979 until today, there has been no decade wherein the regime has not faced some major upheaval in the form of resistance to its rising despotism. The last time was only in 2009, when at least 3 million demonstrators took to the streets to protest what they deemed was a rigged presidential election — one that gave the world and Iran another four years of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Those demonstrations were primarily centered in Tehran and had clear leadership, allowing the regime to brutally suppress the movement and arrest not only thousands but the leaders.

This time, the movement is more diffuse, with no clear leadership, and mobilizations are through networks rather than hierarchies. That makes them harder to suppress.

Moreover, by all accounts, a surprisingly large number of demonstrators have come from the ranks of the working classes, whose support the regime had counted on for all of its tenure. The middle classes have hitherto not fully joined the fray.

Making matters more complicated, threats to regime cohesion and survival are now compounded by daunting strategic challenges in the economic and social domains. A failing small bank and a sharp rise in the price of eggs were the immediate trigger of these new demonstrations.

The strategic challenges faced by the regime include everything from changes in the price of oil; water shortages; a dearth of urgently needed capital investments; a financial system on the verge of collapse; some 60% of the economy controlled by religious foundations that pay no taxes, and companies owned and operated by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards that disdain market rules.

Add to the mix a population in desperate need of subsidies the government can no longer afford; a disgruntled internet-savvy youth, and increasingly assertive women, all of whom see no light at the end of almost three decades of chronic double-digit inflation and unemployment.

The gradual grind of the indignities that come with poverty and the despairing realization that the regime is deaf to the urgent demands of the people gave rise to the sudden and furious explosion of anger.

It is surely possible, as the regime and its apologists claim, that Saudi Arabia, Israel or America have played a role in fueling these fires. But the fact that demonstrations now have taken place in more than 70 cities, many of them never known for anything but conservative piety, makes the claim of a concocted uprising hard to fathom. Foreign meddling works only if domestic realities have created an angry and despairing population.

While it is folly to underestimate the severity of the crisis in Iran, it is no less dangerous to underestimate the regime’s capacity for brutality. There are hundreds of thousands of Revolutionary Guard and militia forces whose perks of power and privilege are tethered to the survival of the regime, and it is hard to imagine they would give up wealth and status beyond their wildest dreams without a fight.

In classical authoritarian manner, while abjuring any responsibility for the problems of society, the regime, particularly the man dubbed supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, has tried to blame it all on foreign enemies, particularly the U.S. as the Great Satan.

A pivotal point of contention has been President Trump’s many tweets offering support for the people of Iran. Critics of Trump here in the U.S., as well as ideologues of the Iranian regime, have dismissed these words of support as “crocodile tears” incongruent with other administration policies (like the travel ban, which includes Iranians).

The most concrete help the U.S. and Europe can provide the Iranian people is to use their technological prowess and ensure free and unfettered access to the internet in Iran. The regime has now declared a virtual digital martial law by slowing or shutting down internet across the country.

Applications like Instagram, Telegram, Twitter and WhatsApp have been critical to people’s ability to organize, mobilize and tell the world about realities on the ground. They must be defended.

The outcome of this new tumultuous turn of event in Iran is hard to predict. What is easy to say is that the status quo ante is dead.