Want Belichick in Blue? Give Pats multiple 1st rounders
Imagine this scene after Bill Belichick presumably wins his sixth Super Bowl on Feb. 4. He steps up the podium the morning after Super Bowl LII in Minneapolis and announces in his trademark monotone, “We’re on to the Giants.” Now granted a lot has to happen for it to even reach the point for Kraft and Giants co-owner John Mara to have a compensation conversation. The reports of an implosion in Patriots Paradise based on a power struggle of Belichick vs. Kraft and Tom Brady must reach the next stage and convince Belichick and Kraft that nothing lasts forever and it’s time to move on.
What would it cost the Giants in draft choices to bring The Hoodie home? An awful lot. “You think Robert Kraft became a millionaire and runs the best organization in the league and he’s just going to lay down and say, ‘We’re going to let you have him?’” one long-time NFL executive said Monday. The price? “Three No. 1 draft picks,” he said. Gulp. Mara can find out by calling his friend Kraft this week and simply saying, “Give me some guidance: Will it be worth it to wait on Belichick or is he staying and we should just move on?”
If Belichick is not in the mix, then I think the Giants will decide by the end of this week between Josh McDaniels, Pat Shurmur and Matt Patricia, who is rumored to be going to the Lions, but who my sources is still very much in play for Big Blue. Steve Wilks is fourth on the Giants’ list.
If Belichick shakes free, then the Giants have to bring him back to the family.
Three No. 1 picks for a 65-year-old coach? “Age doesn’t matter,” the source said.
The Giants can’t give up their well-earned 2018 first round pick. It’s second overall and they are expected to take whoever the Browns leave on the board after drafting Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen. The Giants have to draft their next potential franchise QB.
Here what I would offer: This year’s second round pick (No. 34 overall, which is basically a late first-round pick), a first-round pick in 2019 and second- and fourth round picks in 2020. It’s a little more than the Jets paid in the trade for Bill Parcells in 1997 and the higher round picks are paid out earlier in the deal.
In the last few days, the Patriots have been working overtime on damage control after the explosive ESPN story came out about organizational inflighting. New England has three more games in the next few weeks to add another Lombardi Trophy, so with Kraft, Belichick and Brady issuing a joint statement, and Kraft and Brady later denying on their that there’s any trouble — well, what did you expect them to say?
Belichick was asked Monday if it was definitely his intention to be back with the Patriots next season. “Absolutely,” he said. He didn’t say it with much conviction. He didn’t sound convincing. That could just be Belichick being Belichick. A source told me Friday that if Belichick wants out, “I’m sure Bill knows this is his last chance to be the Giants coach. Bill sees an opening – an opening to get to the Giants.”
If indeed there is a real problem in Foxborough, the truth will come out as soon as the Patriots play their final game of the season, either in the divisional round against the Titans (that’s not going to happen), the AFC Championship Game (a possibility if they are facing Big Ben and the Steelers) or the Super Bowl.
The Giants are at their lowest point in 50 years. If Belichick only wants to coach five more years, he is still going to command a huge price if Kraft agrees to trade him. Keep this is mind: If Belichick doesn’t want to stay in New England, it will be pointless for Kraft to keep him. The last thing an owner wants is a coach who doesn’t want to be there. That’s what happened with Parcells and Kraft.
Of course, Belichick might be perfectly content with the Patriots, he might be willing to work through any issues or he might want out. If he is still the coach of the Patriots two or three days after New England has played its last game, then it’s likely he is going to stay. When he quits a job, he does it quickly. Track record — 2000, HC of the NYJ: 24 hours. Taking this to the next step, the price to New England will hurt. Anything not including the Giants No. 1 pick on April 26 or Odell Beckham and Landon Collins, their two best players, is up for negotiation.
The last time a coach was traded, the Jets sent Herm Edwards to the Chiefs for a fourth-round pick in 2006. I don’t think that trade set any sort of precedent.
The desperate Bucs sent two No. 1 picks, two No. 2 picks and $8 million to the Raiders in 2002 for Jon Gruden. That was an obscene price but Gruden won the Super Bowl in his first season, so he was worth it even if didn’t win another playoff games in his last six years in Tampa.
In 2000, the Jets traded Belichick to the Pats for a No. 1 pick. That has paid off in five Lombardis so far. Kraft wanted the Jets overall No. 1 in the 1997 draft as part of a package for Parcells. The Jets refused and Kraft and Jets owner Leon Hess agreed to allow Paul Tagliabue to serve as the judge and jury in binding arbitration.
Tagliabue settled it by sending New England the Jets third- and fourth rounds picks in 1997, secondround pick in 1998 and first round pick in 1999. The Jets also contributed $300,000 to Kraft’s charitable foundation. Everybody was happy. By his second season, Parcells had the Jets in the AFC title game. After his third season, he quit as coach.
Belichick would be worth the four draft picks I suggested if he could produce just one Lombardi Trophy for the Giants. Then he can announce, “We’re on to Nantucket.”