Here we ’Stro! Houston making pitch for Cole
All indications are the Yankees seem to be willing to wait out the Pirates on trade discussions to acquire Gerrit Cole at their price, and an informal poll I took of scouts and executives on Monday found that most believe patience will pay off for Brian Cashman.
“I think it’s inevitable they’ll get together on a deal,” a rival exec told me Monday. “The Yankees have the pieces and Pittsburgh needs to tear it down. They’ll find common ground.”
Common ground became a common theme on Monday, as five of the six people I polled offered a similar opinion, that Cole will be a Yankee before the start of spring training.
But they also admitted the news of the day, that the Astros were also talking to the Pirates about Cole, could change those opinions.
“They’re one of the few organizations that have the depth, at the big-league and minor-league level, to match what the Yankees can offer,” an AL scout said. “But (GM Jeff) Luhnow has shown he doesn’t want to give up top prospects if he can help it, so I’d still favor the Yankees.”
That may be true, but the Astros’ interest in Cole, first reported by Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, certainly could add urgency to the Yankees’ pursuit of the Pirates’ righthander.
On Monday there was no indication, however, that anything had changed on the Yankees’ end.
Meanwhile, the belief among baseball people is that Cashman will only make the trade on his terms, which likely means Clint Frazier and one of his pitching prospects, like Chance Adams.
To this point there is belief the Pirates want three top prospects, which is more than Cashman is willing to trade for two years of control for Cole, who can be a free agent after the 2019 season.
It’s worth remembering the Yankees gave up three top prospects last July in the trade with the A’s for Sonny Gray, a righthander comparable to Cole, but a rival exec explained why Cashman would view this one differently.
First, he noted that two of the three prospects, James Kaprielian and Dustin Fowler, were injured at the time and looking at long rehabs — Kaprielian after Tommy John surgery and Fowler after knee surgery (Jorge Mateo was the third player in the trade).
In addition, the Yankees were getting Gray for three potential runs at a championship, where they’ll have Cole for only two before he hits free agency.
Finally, the Yankees had a greater need at the time, with Jordan Montgomery on an innings-limit and Masahiro Tanaka pitching with such inconsistency during the season.
“When you look at it from that perspective,” the exec said, “I’d be surprised if Cash gives up as much quality in a trade for Cole. Even if he has to give up three players, I would expect that third player to be a lesser prospect.
“The Yankees are in a position now where they can afford to wait. They have enough pitching where they could be thinking they can wait to add at the trade deadline. The only gamble would be if they have injuries and they lose leverage.”
The other part of the equation is Cole’s value: how much is he worth?
Opinions of those polled were more split on whether he finally blossoms into a consistent frontend-of-the-rotation starter. Three years ago Cole very much looked like the part of a young ace, going 19-8 with a 2.60 ERA, but then he went 7-10 with a 3.88 ERA in 2016, while missing several starts due to an elbow problem, and last season he was very up-and-down, going 12-12 with a 4.26 ERA. Most glaring about his problems last season was that he gave up a career-high 31 home runs, which scouts largely attribute to mistake-fastballs.
“I saw him leave a lot of fastballs over the middle,” one scout said. “He’s got high-end velocity but not a lot of movement on his fastball. I’m not sure what the command issues were, but they worry me. I’m not sure he’s more than a No. 3-type starter.”
Another scout was more convinced that Cole could still be something more like a No. 1 starter.
“I think he got frustrated last year and got too fastball-happy,” the scout said. “He’s got a good slider and at times his change-up is a plus pitch. I would bet the Yankees have analytics telling them they can a lot of improvement out by having Cole throw his secondary stuff more.
“It was only two seasons ago he pitched like an ace, and he’s still a young guy. The Yankees are in a position where they can give up a high-ceiling kid like Frazier because they have so much outfield depth, and their other kid (Estevan) Florial, is more of a center fielder with tremendous upside.” Those polled seemed to believe that Pirates’ GM Neil Huntington eventually will lower his asking price when he concedes he doesn’t have the talent to win in the NL Central and commits to trading both Andrew McCutchen and Cole.
The consensus opinion is the Yankees will get Cole because they have the most to offer, even on their terms. But would Cashman raise his offer to outbid the Astros, if necessary?
That answer may not be as easy for anyone to predict.