BROWNS CONUNDRUM
rather not trade all the way back to No. 12. In my opinion, they’d exhaust all options to get involved in a three-way trade that keeps them in the top six.
So, here’s a trade scenario to consider, one I pitched on NBC’s Sports Final with Bruce Beck on Sunday night: the Bills, Browns and Giants orchestrate a threeway trade in which Buffalo comes all the way up to No. 2 through Cleveland at No. 4 to take Darnold and the Giants still get Barkley at four.
The Giants give up the No. 2 pick (2,600 points on the NFL’s draft value chart) and get back Cleveland’s No. 4, Buffalo’s No. 22 and Buffalo’s No. 65 (2,845 total points).
The Browns give up the No. 4 pick (1,800 points) and get back Buffalo’s Nos. 12, 53 and 56 (second-rounders), and a 2019 second-round pick (estimated 2,300 points).
The Bills give up Nos. 12, 22, 53, 56, 65 and 2019 second-rounder (3,375 points) to come to No. 2 (2,600 points) and take their quarterback.
The NFL’s Draft Value chart is no longer a direct reflection of the market but it’s still the most common way of evaluating return on trades. And for comparison: the Jets gave up about 760 more points on the value chart (2,960) than the Colts (2,200) to move up from No. 6 to 3.
The Bills in this scenario would give up 775 more points than their trade partners to make a bigger move (I’ve estimated future second-round picks as middle-rounders, 48th overall, to best estimate value). The Eagles went 538 points in the hole in 2016 when they made their blockbuster deal to move up from No. 8 to No. 2 with the Browns to draft Carson Wentz out of North Dakota State. That worked out OK.
Now, the Giants could require way more return than this to move back even two slots, sure. I’m just pitching one idea on how a deal might work. And frankly, if Gettleman likes Josh Rosen, he might be able to make a similar trade down a few slots and still get the UCLA QB, too.
If Gettleman is smart, though, he should leak this week that he loves Allen, too, to drive the prices up on a potential trade. Unless, that is, the Giants are keeping quiet because they intend to draft Allen at No. 2.
One thing’s for sure: Gettleman is keeping everyone on their heels.
Darnold, Allen and Mayfield are all rumored as the Browns’ potential target at No. 1. Some reports will tell you it’s between Allen and Mayfield.
I think it’s so strange that, hypothetically, the Browns’ QB decision could be narrowed down to two players who couldn’t be any more different: Allen is humble, tall, raw, low completion percentage, a small schooler, with wins under his belt but requiring time to develop; Mayfield is cocky, short, ready, high completion percentage, Heisman Trophy winner, played in the College Football Playoff, has spoken openly about turning the entire Browns franchise around.
And hey, it could be Darnold when it’s all said and done, but I believe a couple things: 1. There clearly isn’t a consensus top QB in this class, or we’d know who the Browns are drafting already.
2. If Mayfield were a couple inches taller, he’d be the No. 1 pick. I have no doubt. I just wonder if he’ll be the top pick anyway.