Trying to find diamond in the NBA rough
Contrary to popular belief, the Knicks are not exempt from ever being lucky. Three years ago, they dropped in the NBA Draft Lottery and Kristaps Porzingas fell into their lap. And let us not forget that in 1985 the Knicks won the Lottery and the right to select Patrick Ewing No.1 overall. That’s right. It’s been 33 years since the Knicks lucked into good ‘ole No.33. In fact, in the 15 lotteries the Knicks have participated in, the only time they moved up was for Ewing in 1985.
The problem is that the Knicks haven’t been lucky enough, nor good enough, for nearly two decades now. Maybe that changes on Tuesday in Chicago with the 2018 NBA Draft Lottery. The odds aren’t great; the Knicks have just a 6.1 percent chance of moving into the top 3, and a 1.7 percent chance of securing the top overall pick.
But, no matter what happens on Tuesday in Chicago, the Knicks will have a chance to draft an impact player whether they select first, ninth or 10th. There are good players out there. It’s just a matter of finding them.
The Celtics traded down to pick Jayson Tatum third overall and the rookie forward out of Duke has been a revelation this postseason. Donovan Mitchell was selected 13th in last year’s draft and he’ll either win Rookie of the Year or finish second to the Sixers Ben Simmons.
In fact, if you were re-drafting the 2017 class, Mitchell would be the first pick and Tatum would go No.2. Meanwhile, Kyle Kuzma selected 27th overall by the Lakers would likely be a top 5 pick. The Knicks selected point guard Frank Ntilikina eighth overall and the book is not closed on the Frenchman even though the Knicks general manager Scott Perry spent most of last season acquiring point guards to play ahead of Ntilikina.
That pick is the last transaction of the Phil Jackson era and time will tell if Jackson drafted a player who can contribute in the rebuild or if it was a wasted pick that just set the Knicks back. But there’s no escaping the fact that Mitchell was on the board when the Knicks were on the clock. Just think of how much further along they’d be with the guard/ forward combination of Mitchell and Porzingis, assuming the All-Star forward makes a full recovery from major knee surgery.
Perry admitted that he’s a little “superstitious” and that he’ll likely wear a lucky tie that a friend gave to him. That’s great. That’s what this show, which will be televised live prior to Game 2 of Celtics-Cavs, is all about. But all those lucky charms and the famous faces representing the lottery teams on the dais is just a one-night deal. Building a team — a winning team — is a long, arduous process.
The Perry-Steve Mills front office will be judged on the players that they draft or acquire, either through trade or free agency. Without a transformative talent like LeBron James in this draft, not getting the number one pick isn’t a deal-breaker. Or maybe you forgot already that Philadelphia traded up and drafted Markelle Fultz.
He’s only 19 years old and perhaps with time and work, he’ll develop into an All-Star caliber player. But as of now, he’s just an unproven, oft-injured point guard who appeared in 14 regular season games. He’s currently closer to being a bust than he is to being a star. Think of how formidable Philadelphia would be with Joel Embid, Simmons, and either Tatum or Mitchell.
That’s why it’s not about where you pick, it’s about who you pick. That’s the real job for a front office. Luck is only part of it. Being smart, savvy and diligent is the key. That’s what the Knicks should be focused on.