GOTTA GET IT RIGHT!
Taking HS hitter a big risk for Mets
AT THE TIME, Brandon Nimmo was an odd pick. The outfielder from Wyoming had never played high school baseball. There were many who questioned why Sandy Alderson used the 13th overall pick in the 2011 MLB draft on a high school kid who played American Legion and was really just unpolished potential.
Seven years later, the Mets are finally starting to see that potential mature into results with Nimmo making an impact on the majorleague level.
Monday, Alderson and the Mets gambled with another longview selection. With the sixth overall pick, the highest under Alderson, and a player development system that has been under scrutiny, the Mets took another northern high school outfielder.
Jarred Kelenic was considered one of the best pure hitters in the draft class. Jim Callis, senior writer for MLB Pipeline, compared Kelenic to a “more athletic Mark Kotsay.”
“A potential five-tool player, he’s the best high school hitter I saw,” a scout who saw Kelenic in the last year said. “He’s a good hitter and I think the power may come later with him. He’s got a solid arm, probably a corner outfielder eventually.”
Most scouts had linked the Mets with University of Florida third baseman Jonathan India, but the slugger had been grabbed the pick before by the Reds. India, like most college hitters, is seen as a player who can move up through the system quicker.
But the Mets went with a longerterm investment.
Every pick is a mix of scouting, luck and time to evaluate, but with a front office that is facing criticism for its ability to draft and develop players, this is a big draft for the Mets.
In seven years, Alderson’s picks in the first-round have not been too impressive.
“They have done better the last few years, but they’ve had some bad ones,” an NL scouting executive said. “I would say 2012 was bad, probably the worst they have had.”
That was the year that the Mets picked Gavin Cecchini at No.12 and got Kevin Plawecki with a supplemental pick at No.35. Plawecki has contributed at the major-league level, but Cecchini has seemingly been lost in the shuffle in the minors. It looks all the worse when you look at that draft overall and see that three future All-Stars were available at No.12, including Dodgers’ shortstop Corey Seager.
So far, the Mets 2013 pick hasn’t made a payoff either. The Mets used the 11th overall pick to take high school first baseman Dominic Smith that year. Smith has been a frustrating disappointment who has battled weight and maturity issues. After showing up for his major league debut last August overweight, Smith came into spring training in shape. He blew his opportunity to start the first game of camp by showing up late for a meeting. He injured his leg in the next game and missed the rest of spring training. It’s telling that the Mets brought him up for three days this season and gave him just one at-bat. They have recently moved him to the outfield at Triple-A.
In 2014, the Mets took Michael Conforto, one of two AllStars picked so far under Alderson’s regime. Still, Conforto has yet to regain that form since his devastating shoulder injury that ended his All-Star 2017 season. The other All-Star Alderson’s front office picked was their second pick in 2011, Michael Fulmer, who was a Rookie of the Year and All Star with the Tigers after being traded for Yoenis Cespedes in 2015.
After the Mets made it clear they would pursue Michael Cuddyer on the free-agent market in 2015, the Rockies made him a qualifying offer. Signing the declining outfielder cost the Mets their first-round pick in the 2015 draft.
There are still some potential hits in the Mets’ draft history.
The Mets’ last two picks have a high ceiling, Anthony Kay, their 2016 pick is coming off Tommy John surgery, and 2017 pick David Peterson has impressed scouts this season. Both are pitchers.
“They look like they could be good picks,” the scouting executive said. “They look like pitchers that can make a real impact.”
The Mets need that impact player. They cannot afford to miss again on their first-round pick.