SHOWDOWN IN THE SENATE
Democrats need a swing of just one seat to gain control for first time in decades
ALBANY — With the Democrats likely to sweep the elections for statewide office on Tuesday, the key battle will be for control of the state Senate.
Republicans are fighting to keep control of the Senate, the last bastion of power for the GOP in heavily blue New York.
The Republicans have controlled the chamber — except for a brief and chaotic period in 2009-10 — for decades.
But this year, if the Democrats pick up a net of just one seat, they will take over the Senate and control both houses of the Legislature and likely the governor’s mansion, the offices of attorney general and controller, and both U.S. Senate seats.
Senate Majority Leader John Flanagan (R-Suffolk County) said a split Legislature is actually beneficial for the state. The Senate GOP, he said, would push for more tax cuts, making the state more affordable, “and ensuring every region gets its fair share.”
“People really do want the checks and balances and the accountability our majority provides,” Flanagan said.
The Republicans have argued the last time the Democrats were in charge of the chamber they raised taxes and fees by $14 billion, though the Democrats say they are virtually an entirely different conference since then.
For Democrats, capturing the majority would open the door to a host of progressive legislation like the strengthening of the state’s abortion laws, tougher gun laws, voter and other ethics reforms, and passage of a Child Victims Act making it easier for child sex abuse survivors to seek justice as adults.
“There are a host of important progressive priorities that have been bottled up due to the Republican controlled Senate that now will finally see the light of day,” said Sen. Michael Gianaris, the Queens Democrat heading his conference’s campaign committee.
It would also prove a historic win as Senate Democratic Leader Andrea Stewart Cousins, of Yonkers, would become the first woman to head a state legislative majority conference in New York history.
Traditionally, non-presidential election years have benefitted the Senate Republicans. But in the era of President Trump, 2018 is anything but traditional.
If the blue wave that some predict hits New York, it could spell doom for the GOP, both sides say.
But if fired up new and young Democrats don’t channel their anger by going to the polls, even some Democratic operatives envision a scenario where the Republicans can hold on to its razor-thin one-seat majority that currently exists only because Brooklyn Democratic Sen. Simcha Felder chooses to caucus with the GOP.
The Democrats not surprisingly have tried to tie Republican candidates to President Trump, who remains highly unpopular in his home state. The Republicans, meanwhile, have used Gov. Cuomo and Mayor de Blasio as bogeymen against Democrats in the suburbs and upstate to warn against oneparty rule they say will be dominated by New York City interests.
The key battles will be fought on Long Island, the Hudson Valley, and in the Syracuse area.
The top tier races pit incumbent veteran Sen. Carl Marcellino (R-Nassau County) versus Democrat Jim Gaughran; Democrat and current state Assemblyman James Skoufis against Repub-
lican Tom Basile for an Orange County seat being vacated by long-time Republican Sen. William Larkin; and Republican Onondaga County Controller Robert Antonacci against Democrat John Mannion for a seat that for decades belonged to Senate Republican Deputy Majority Leader John DeFrancisco, who is retiring.
Another key race—and the only one where Republicans are playing offense rather than trying to protect one of their own incumbents—pits Sen. John Brooks (D-Nassau County) against Republican challenger Jeff Pravato, the Massapequa Park mayor for a seat that until 2016 had historically been Republican.
Also possibly in play are seats currently belong to long-time Sen. Martin Golden, a Brooklyn Republican being challenged by Democrat Andrew Gounardes; and Sen. Elaine Phillips (R-Nassau County) who is facing Democrat Anna Kaplan.
In Suffolk County, Republican Assemblyman Dean Murray is squaring off in what both sides say could be a tight race against Democrat Monica Martinez for a seat being vacated by Republican Sen. Tom Crocci.
Upstate, Democrats also believe they have a shot at winning a race between Democrat Aaron Gladd and Republican Daphne Jordan that is being vacated by Sen. Kathy Marchione (R-Saratoga County).
“If the (blue) wave is big enough, another two or three seats could come into play,” Gianaris said.
Further complicating matters for the Republicans is the dissolution of a group of eight breakaway Democrats who had been aligned iwth the GOP in a leadership coalition. The group went back to the mainline Democrats in April and six of the eight were ousted in the subsequent September Democratic primaries. "With no (Independent Democratic Conference), there’s no question about what happens after Tuesday,” Gianaris said, meaning that the parties will no where they stand—unless, of course, some races are too close to call. That could leave both sides in limbo for weeks, which has happened before. With the stakes high, it’s not surprising both sides are pouring millions of dollars into the key races. The Senate Republicans’ main campaign committee between mid July and Oct. 27 spent $5.62 million while the Democrats Senate Demomillion cratic Committee spent $3.7 during the same period, records show. Both have continued to spend big since then, with Gianaris saying the Dems having put another $1.8 million into the races, for a record total of $5.5 million.
At the same time, various Super PACs, which by law can raise and spend unlimited amounts of money but cannot coordinate with any campaigns, have dumped more than $8 million into the Senate races.
But unlike in years past, where Super PACs were generally split down the middle, much of the spending this year—including millions of dollars from the a PAC created by the state teachers union—has benefited the Democrats.
Charter school supporters and the real estate industry, which in past years spent millions of their own to help Senate Republican candidates, have stayed on the sidelines this year.
Also helping the Senate Democrats is Gov. Cuomo, who in his own reelection year has publicly made flipping the state Senate one of his priorities. Cuomo, who in the past has been accused of not doing enough to help his own party win control of the Senate, has helped Democratic candidates raise money, has appeared at rallies.
Not surprisingly, both sides are expressing confidence they will come out on top on Tuesday.
“We’re optimistic,” Gianaris said. "The field is in our favor. The U.S. Senate is challenging for Democrats because so many Democratic seats are at risk. Here it’s the opposite. We have one Democratic seat at risk and 10 Republican seats we’re trying to flip.”
Said Flanagan: “We’re in a strong position to win, and I’m confident we’re going to do it.”