When your WORST isn’t good enough
Last place can’t guarantee Zion, but there are other choices
The race to the bottom — the very bottom — isn’t about Zion Williamson.
With the pitiful Suns beating the miserable Knicks on Wednesday night — and the moribund Cavs losing in Brooklyn — it’s worth remembering that Adam Silver changed the rules so that the three worst teams all have the same chance of landing the No. 1 pick.
Those chances are only 14%, just 6.5 percentage points greater than the team with the seventh-worst record. In other words, “Not Tryin” For Zion’ is an inherently flawed premise.
But there is an advantage to finishing at the bottom in the NBA, which is what the Knicks (13-52) and Suns (15-51) were fighting for at Talking Stick Resort Arena. The worst team can’t fall further than fifth in the draft lottery, while the second-worst has a 20% chance of picking sixth.
Why is this important? For starters, scouts view the 2019 class as very top heavy. But also consider history: there have been 37 drafts from 1980 to 2016, and there’s a big dropoff at No. 6 in terms of All-Stars picked in that spot ( just 19%). Every spot from 1-5 produced an All-Star at least 30% of the time.
With that in mind, below is a breakdown of the projected top-6 picks in the 2019 NBA draft.
1. ZION WILLIAMSON
● Age at time of the draft: 18
● School: Duke
● Position: F
● Height: 6-8
● Stats: 21.6 points, 8.8 rebounds, 68% shooting
● The upside:
Even if I put a concrete ceiling on Zion, he’d jump right through it. Never before has there been a combination of size, power and explosiveness. It’s become legend. Like Shaq used to destroy backboards, rims and stanchions, Zion is deflating basketballs and crushing sneakers. Also like Shaq, LeBron and Kobe, Zion is already recognized by just his first name.
● The downside:
He’s not a good shooter from the outside, at just 29% from the college 3. With that weight (285 pounds) and playing style, there are real concerns about his health in the NBA.
2. RJ BARRETT
● Age at time of the draft: 19
● School: Duke
● Position: Wing
● Height: 6-7
● Stats: 23.3
points, 7.4 rebounds,
46%
shooting
● The upside:
A gifted scorer and finisher at the rim with the physical tools of a star. Barrett can flat-out score and his production at Duke is proof.
● The downside:
He’s accused of having tunnel vision with the ball and has obvious deficiencies as a playmaker. Moreover, his shot is not efficient ( just 31% percent from beyond the NCAA arc) and he’s inconsistent.
3. JA MORANT
● Age at time of the draft: 19
● School: Murray State
● Position: G
● Height: 6-3
● Stats: 24.1 points, 10.3 assists, 50% shooting
● The upside:
He has an edge that you love to see in a lead guard and holds elite playmaking potential. He’s also an explosive athlete with a tool set reminiscent of Russell Westbrook’s.
● The downside:
He plays for a mid-major program, so the stats are inflated. The jumper is improving, but he’s far from elite in that category. At only 175 pounds, Morant needs to add strength in order to thrive in the NBA.
4. JARRETT CULVER
● Age at the time of the draft: 20
● School: Texas Tech
● Position: G
● Height: 6-7
● Stats: 17.9 points, 6.3 rebounds, 48% shooting
● The upside:
A two-way player who is a versatile scorer and playmaker. Physically, he already fits the profile of an NBA player. He doesn’t need the ball to be productive, which will be a plus for the Knicks, who are filling out their roster with ball-dominant players.
● The downside:
The downside is that his upside is not that great. A high-floor, low-ceiling type pick. Not particularly elite at anything. Just solid at everything.
5. CAM REDDISH
● Age at time of the draft: 19
● School: Duke
● Position: Wing
● Height: 6-8
● Stats: 14 points, 3.7 rebounds, 36% shooting
● The upside:
He can shoot and he has the length to be a strong defender in the premier position of the new-age NBA. A potential 3-and-D specialist, and you can’t have enough of those on the roster.
● The downside:
It’s been a very underwhelming freshman season for Reddish, a gut-punch to all the preseason hype. There are questions about his effort level (which should give the Knicks pause after the same concerns were raised about the struggling Kevin Knox).
6. DARIUS GARLAND
● Age at time of the draft: 19
● School: Vanderbilt
● Position: G
● Height: 6-2
● Stats: 16.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, 54% shooting
● The upside:
A top-level shooter from deep, by far the best in this top-6 list. He’ll bring mystery to the combine after missing most of the season following knee surgery. It was a meniscus repair, so the long-term outlook shouldn’t be bad.
● The downside:
The fact that Garland would be considered at this point in the draft is indicative of the dropoff after the top 5. Even before his knee injury, he wasn’t an elite prospect. He’s small and only a decent athlete.