Losing out on pitcher no great loss for Yanks
For an extra couple million dollars Dallas Keuchel chose the Atlanta Braves over the Yankees on Thursday and, by doing so, put himself in a much better place to reestablish his free agent market value at the end of the season. To suggest, however, that this was some sort of missed opportunity on the Yankees’ part — as a few baseball scribes have — is preposterous.
These are the same people who vilified the Yankees for not signing Robinson Cano for $300 million-plus in 2013 and passing on paying Manny Machado the same this past winter in favor of DJ LeMahieu. The fact is, the 31-year-old Keuchel, who’s a long way from his 2015 Cy Young season, was never going to be a pennant race difference-maker for the Yankees. They viewed him as an experienced extra lefty arm in the rotation who would cost only money. In truth, they also privately felt after his declining season in ’18 in which his ERA shot up almost a run per game and he led the AL in hits allowed, he was now more suited for the DH-less National League. That’s probably why his agent, Scott Boras, was unable to secure a multi-year deal for him (as fellow free agent holdout Craig Kimbrel got from the Cubs) once the draft pick compensation went away last week.
There was something else, too, that motivated the Yankees to hold firm on their one-year (approximately $11 million) prorated offer to the $17.9 qualifying offer Keuchel turned down, and that was the recent track record of free agent pitchers who held out late, missing nearly half the season. Alex Cobb was a total bust with the Orioles last year. Lance
Lynn was also pretty much a bust in 20 games for the Twins last year, and this season, Gio Gonzalez, who didn’t sign until late April with the Brewers, has had to shut it down because of a tired arm.
Despite their starting pitching issues, the Yankees have been hanging on in first place, and with Luis Severino and Jordan Montgomery reportedly progressing in their rehabs, they didn’t see any great urgency to sign Keuchel, who wouldn’t be able to help them anyway until July. By then, Severino and Montgomery will be much closer to return and the trade market will be starting to heat up. With so many teams already out of the pennant races, there will be a bunch of starting pitchers — Madison Bumgarner, Jeff Samardzjia, Marcus Stroman, Trevor Bauer, Chris Archer et al., — available, all of whom could conceivably be far more difference-makers than Keuchel.
(An addendum here: If anything, the Yankees can be faulted for passing on Charlie Morton last winter out of concerns of age (35) and potential injury. Morton has only been the best pitcher in the AL this year, and had the Rays not uncharacteristically busted their budget on him (two years/$30M), the Yankees’ lead in the AL East would likely be at least six lengths now.)