Signing Durant will be huge risk for any team
Kevin Durant is expected to miss all of next season. That much was a given the moment he went under the knife to repair a torn Achilles and ESPN confirmed it Thursday.
The more pressing question is how many games will Durant play in the 2020-21 season, and if he’ll ever again be a dominant force. In this new NBA world of “load man- agement,” it’s a lock Durant won’t play all 82 when he finally returns.
Sixty-five seems a fair estimate with no back-to-backs and additional time off for general maintenance.
This is all important for the Knicks if they’re going to pursue Durant on a four-year, $160 million contract this summer. What they’d really be getting is three years and a ton of question marks. The $38 million in the first year is strictly for rehab, and the second year is — at least partially — a readjustment period.
When Durant returns, he’ll be 32 years old with Father Timelooking to pounce. Some players have recovered nicely from Achilles tears (Dominique Wilkins, Dr. Dick Barnett), and some careers were destroyed with the snap of that tendon (Kobe Bryant, Elton Brand, Patrick Ewing). It’s a crapshoot with odds leaning toward the loss.
The Knicks waited a full year of gushing losing without Kristaps Porzingis before they traded him, and now they’re
willing to do the same for Durant who is seven years older with a worse injury.
The big difference, of course, is that Durant is an alltime great and Porzingis is unproven. But it’s worth noting that part of Porzingis’ issues with the organization, according to sources, was a distrust of the Knicks’ medical staff. As a result, Porzingis had his own doctor and physiotherapist and threatened to finish his rehab overseas.
Durant might be skeptical of Golden State’s medical staff given the way his injury played out, which would be significant if the Warriors try to re-sign the future Hall of Famer. He was cleared to play after straining his right calf about a month ago, and then ruptured his right Achilles in his first game back Monday. The crazy coincidence theory is tough to believe.
No matter why his injury happened, Durant is out next season and his future beyond is murky. For the Knick s, signing Durant makes sense if they can secure an All-Star cast around him. Durant will need the help when he returns. But at this point New York’s assets aren’t enough to entice New Orleans to trade Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving is keen on joining Brooklyn.
Unless that changes — or unless Kawhi Leonard decides to leap into the Garden — the risk-reward ratio regarding Durant doesn’t line up well for the Knicks.