Pomeranz on verge of pen breakout
Could the next Andrew Miller be hiding in plain sight?
At first glance, free-agent pitcher Drew Pomeranz was bad in 2019. His 2-10 record and 4.85 ERA split between the Giants and Brewers was unsurprising, because he was even worse the year before, pitching to a 6.08 ERA in Boston and all but guaranteeing he’ll go down as the answer to the “Who was the worst player on the 2018 World Series champion Red Sox?” But a brief, yet wholly dominant spell in the Brewers bullpen has piqued interest around the league, with ESPN’s Jeff Passan calling him a “hot name” in the relief market.
Pomeranz immediately started gaining fastball strength, jumping from the low 90s as a Giants starter to the mid-90s with the Brewers, peaking with a career-high 97.5 mph fastball out of the pen in a September relief outing against the Cubs. The boost, along with increased reliance on his curveball, led to 45 strikeouts in 26.1 innings. Pomeranz’s bullpen run was quick, but it was the most dominant stretch of his life — even better than his lone All-Star appearance with the Padres in 2016.
He wouldn’t be the first starter to find new life in the bullpen.
If you scanned Miller’s 2011 season, whether by looking at his stats (5.54 ERA), or by picking the archives of a random game out of a hat, you would have little reason to believe he was an impact player. His command was miserable, and his fastball would drop as low as 90 mph as he advanced in his starts.
What we didn’t realize was that the starts were the problem. Miller was severely miscast as a starting pitcher throughout the first half of his career. Understandable — he was a top prospect, and along with Cameron Maybin, was the centerpiece in the Tigers’ deal for Miguel Cabrera. But the stuff didn’t hold and the command was spotty at best.
He lost his starting spot on a contending Red Sox team, and was forced into a relief role at times (He didn’t join the pen full time until 2012). In the brief time he did, Miller did something he didn’t do despite a tantalizing fastball and sweeping slider: He started striking everybody out. Miller faced 34 batters in relief, and 12 of them went down on strikes, an insane 35.3%. Plus, his wavering velocity didn’t just hold steady, it took a leap, all the way from 92 mph in the rotation to 97.7 in his final pen outing, similar to the Pomeranz bump.
Miller also scrapped a changeup in his bullpen outings, compensating with a greater emphasis on his nowtrademark slider. Pomeranz also tossed his changeup when joining the Brewers pen, focusing on his breaking ball, an arching curveball he buried down in the zone.
Going after Pomeranz is a risk reminiscent of what Miller must have represented to other teams in the league before his 2012 ascension, yet an even safer bet because he maintained a better performance over a much longer stretch. The sample is small, but it’s significant enough to matter.
For teams that are shopping for upside, which should be just about every bullpen, getting Pomeranz now could secure your late innings just like an erratic lefty did before him.