Yikes! Get in early on Vikes
NFL spreads usually open up on Sunday evenings for the following week — and after they do, they're almost immediately on the move. The early bets serve as a signal to bookmakers for what the “true” odds should be, and sportsbooks aren't shy about adjusting on the fly if the market is telling them they missed the mark.
Here are the early bets The Action Network's NFL experts made on Vikings-Saints and Seahawks-Eagles.
John Ewing: Vikings +8
The Saints are a good team and playing in the SuperDome, but this number is just too high.
Historically, favorites have been overvalued in the playoffs. Since 2003, favorites are 7695-4 (44.4%) against the spread (ATS) in the postseason, according to Bet Labs. Oddsmakers know casual bettors like to wager on favorites and will inflate the line.
It's not just history that points to value on the Vikings. Sean Koerner's power ratings make the Saints 5.5-point favorites and The Action Network simulations have New Orleans winning by 3.6 points on average.
I'd bet Kirk Cousins & Co. down to +7.
Sean Koerner: Vikings +8
I projected this line as Saints -5.5, but I was not surprised to see them favored by more than a touchdown when the market opened. The Saints are clearly the better team and at home, but I feel the public is overinflating the advantage due to recency bias.
In Week 15, Drew Brees broke two NFL records in a 34-7 victory over the Colts. The Saints followed that up with two impressive road wins, including a 42-10 victory over the Panthers.
However, the Saints have been far from perfect in the second half of the season. They were stunned by the Falcons at home in a 26-9 loss and barely beat the Panthers 34-31 at home two weeks later.
As for the Vikings, they bombed on Monday Night Football in a 23-10 loss and were able to rest their starters in a meaningless Week 17 loss to the Bears.
That extra week of rest should get them closer to full strength as they should be able to get Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison back for the postseason. Adam Thielen has been dealing with a nagging hamstring issue all year, so he may be closer to 100% this week due to the added rest.
We have to remember that the spread itself is not a prediction by the sportsbooks, rather a number that they let the market ultimately set as their main goal is to divide the action evenly. If they were to float a -5.5 line here, they would get hammered by Saints tickets.
I'm proposing that the undercurrent of sharp action will be betting this number toward -5.5, so I wanted to lock in the Vikings when they were getting more than a key number of +7.5 as it's more likely to move to +7 by kickoff than it is to +10.
Travis Reed: Eagles Moneyline +110
The Action Network simulations once again are not fans of the Seahawks. Their point differential this season was +7, which indicates a team that is likely to go 8-8 instead of 11-5. But Seattle did very well in onescore games this season, a stat that has proven to be mostly random and unsustainable over time.
The Eagles have a ton of injuries, but have been able to come through with their depth and appear to have found an explosive new toy in Boston Scott.
The simulations see these two teams as close to equal on a neutral field, and I think Philadelphia has a coaching advantage with Doug Pederson having a good grasp of game theory. I like the Eagles as home dogs and would take the moneyline at +100 or better.