Take Niners; Chiefs under
Sportsbooks released spreads and over/unders for the two NFL Conference Championships before Divisional Round matchups were even finalized, and almost immediately, odds were on the move.
Given the importance of beating the closing line in sports betting, it's vital to get a jump on the market — that often means locking in a few bets earlier in the week.
Matthew Freedman: Titans-Chiefs Under 53
Outdoor postseason games have trended to the under with a record of 77-58-4, good for a 10.5% return on investment (ROI).
And whenever the Chiefs are home, I almost always bet the under anyway. That didn't work out well for me in the Divisional Round, but I expect the market will be too bullish on the over because of the 82 points scored in Kansas City.
Arrowhead Stadium is a tough place to play, and I expect the Titans to lean on the ground game, given that running back Derrick Henry is currently in god mode and the Chiefs are No. 29 in run defense.
With a run-heavy attack, the Titans are likely to slow the game down, which could drive the total to the under.
It might seem counterintuitive to bet the under when one of the league's best offenses is at home, but under head coach Andy Reid, the Chiefs actually have an under record of 36-23-1 at home (including playoffs, 18.9% ROI).
Since 2013, no home coach has been more profitable for under bettors than Reid.
Chris Raybon: 49ers -7.5
The 49ers closed as 7-point favorites over the Vikings -- and the Vikings were a better team than the Packers.
Simple Rating System (schedule-adjusted margin of victory) pegs the Vikings at +5.4 and the Packers at +3.2. Or take DVOA, a schedule-adjusted team efficiency metric by Football Outsiders that ranks the Vikings seventh at +15.4%, twice as efficient as the 10th-ranked Packers (+7.7%). The 49ers, meanwhile, clock in with +11.0 SRS (second in the NFL) and a +27.5% DVOA (fifth).
Despite home-field advantage and extra rest, the Packers barely held on against an injuryravaged Seahawks team in the Divisional Round, getting outgained 375-344 in total yardage and 6.3-5.8 in yards per play. And all of the advantages Green Bay enjoyed against Seattle are no longer present.
Wide receiver Davante Adams went 8-160-2, accounting for a ludicrous 66% of Green Bay's passing yardage. But this is a San Francisco defense that allowed a league-low 4.8 net yards per pass attempt.
That leaves running back Aaron Jones, Green Bay's only other means of offense against Seattle (66 yards, two touchdowns). But San Francisco held Jones to 38 yards on 13 touches in the teams' first matchup, and he's at risk of suffering a similar fate as Dalvin Cook, who gained only 26 yards on 15 touches last week.
The market has been underrating the 49ers' dominance all season. That was the case in Week 12, when they were favored by three against these Packers and won by 29 in a 37-8 rout.
And it's been even more true in the postseason, when they got back a stud at every level of their defense in safety Jaquiski Tartt, linebacker Kwon Alexander and pass-rusher Dee Ford. In eight games with all three in the lineup together, the 49ers allowed 11.9 points per game. They went 8-0 straight up and 6-2 ATS in those games, with a staggering +14.9 ATS margin.