Despite injuries, Bombers make
Luis Severino's upcoming Tommy John surgery is a major loss for the Yankees' 2020 championship hopes. He's one of a handful of the best pitchers in baseball when healthy. The 26-year-old right-hander isn't Gerrit Cole. (That's why the Yankees signed Gerrit Cole.) But, short of arguably the best pitcher in the American League, when healthy, Severino is the very best next thing.
When healthy. Right. Due to three arm injuries that have compounded into a right UCL tear, the 20 innings he pitched in 2019 will likely be his only ones in a period stretching longer than two years. Conservatively, Severino's recovery will take him through the 2021 All-Star break.
At that point, he'll be 2.5 years into a four-year, $40 million contract. Was that a bad gamble? Should the Yankees shy away from offering extensions to their young stars?
In light of his injuries, such buyer's remorse is understandable. It's also wrong. Ensuring
Severino would be a Yankee through his twenties wasn't just sound strategy, it still has the potential to be great value.
DON’T FORGET
Between 2017 and 2018, Severino firmly established himself as one of baseball's premier pitchers. Across 384.2 innings, Severino's ERA was 3.18, ninth in all of baseball among qualifiers. Behind Severino: aces like Zach Grienke, Kyle Hendricks and our $324 million dollar man before he became fully actualized with the Astros.
Using Fangraphs' ERA-, which factors in Severino's cozy Yankee Stadium home ballpark, he was 26% better than the league average. Severino had back to back top-10 finishes in the AL Cy Young vote, leading the Yankees' staff through two pennant races.
None of those numbers were fluky. Watching him compete on the mound solidifies his brilliance and potential. Severino threw a mid to high 90s fastball that he could run up to 100.
Severino's slider had nasty movement, running down and tailing in the opposite direction of his fastball. Who's touching this?
Basically no one. Severino racked up 450 strikeouts and struck out 28.8% of batters faced — eighth and seventh in baseball, respectively, over that two-year stretch.
Even more impressive than the live arm was his aggressive approach in the strike zone. Severino, when on, attacks the plate with no remorse, evidenced by his 6.2% walk rate (tied for 11th.)
So what we have is a clear cut top-10 pitcher that is unquestionably the best homegrown Yankee starter since Chien-Ming Wang. (Wow, it's been a while.) Oh, and he ended the 2018 season at 24 years old.
Does that resume sound like a $10 million a year pitcher?
SEVERINOS DONT GROW ON TREES
Yeah, the Yankees are on the hook for $40 million. They're lucky they got him that cheap. Were Severino a free agent after 2018, he could have earned at least five times as much.
Remember: Severino's $10 million a year is less than what J.A. Happ ($17 million),