Right move with Sevy

James Paxton ($12.5) and Masahiro Tanaka ($22.14) will make in 2020, all players with good track records save for Happ’s 2019. Those are also players that Severino has objectively outperformed in the not-so-distant past.

Based on Fangraphs’ model for free agent pricing, which estimates the free(ish) market cost of a win above replacement, Severino’s last full season produced $42.9 million of value to the Yankees. In 2017, it was $44.8 million. But, Severino wasn’t competing for the highest bidder. He was making $600k, effectively the league minimum and literally 1% of his on-field value. Pay disparities like his plague most under-30 talents, and will likely be a heated part of negotiations when the next collective bargaining agreement expires.

Also, Fangraphs’ model probably underrates Severino’s contract value, especially to the Yankees. It’s descriptive, not qualitative. Averaging the 30 franchises means that teams like the Rays that don’t spend in free agency are included. Severino has even more value to a team that is willing to compete for championships and playoff revenue.

If Severino makes a full recovery, or even declines a hair, he’ll cover the cost of his entire contract with a single season’s worth of work. If he becomes a No. 3 or 4 starter instead of a borderline ace, he could still make it up barring a setback. And if he continues to mature in composure and command — far from unthinkable for a player just entering his late-20s — the sky is the limit.

With the next two seasons, plus a 2023 club option, there’s still plenty of time for Severino’s deal to be an underpay. And by the way, if you root for the New York Yankees, you should pull for the most talented roster, not the cleanest Quickbooks.

Severino was always worth the risk. He still is. Unless your front office dabbles in prophecy, deciding whether or not to extend young players, especially ones as talented as Severino, is simple:

• Do you think the player is good?

• Do you think there’s a decent chance he’ll continue to be good?

If you answered yes to both, run to those pockets.