It’s make or break
BIDEN’S HOPES HINGE ON SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY SATURDAY
Take it from his closest ally: Joe Biden needs a near landslide in Saturday’s South Carolina primary to derail Democratic presidential front-runner Bernie Sanders.
Rep. James Clyburn said the former vice president has to show a big surge in the first-in-the-South primary state to convince black voters on Super Tuesday and beyond that he is their man in the primary race.
“It needs to be substantial,” Clyburn told CNN Friday morning. “I would like to see double digits, and not just 10 or 11. I would like to see 15 or 16,” he added. “That’s what I want to see.”
A relaxed Biden was barnstorming across South Carolina in the final hours before voters go to the polls Saturday, reminding voters of his decision to help Barack Obama become the nation’s first black president in 2008.
Sanders, whose campaign admits he is behind, held a rousing packed rally with 2,000 supporters on Thursday night at a college in Spartanburg.
But after that, he jetted off to Massachusetts where he is hoping to beat Elizabeth Warren on her home turf on Super Tuesday.
Biden’s poll numbers are mostly rising in recent days in South Carolina, especially among African Americans who are expected to make up about 60% of the voters. He got a big boost this week when Clyburn endorsed him after a strong performance in the latest debate.
He leads Sanders and billionaire Tom Steyer by about 13% according to the Real Clear Politics polling average. Warren and Pete Buttigieg lag behind.
“There has been a palpable shift toward the vice president on the ground in recent days,” said Trav Robertson, the state Democratic chairman.
A modest win may just not be enough for Biden. And even his supporters admit it.
“It’s the be-all and endall,” said Bakari Sellers, a former South Carolina state representative.
“We’re trying to create a surge here. There’s going to be 14 states voting next Tuesday, and we would like to see him go into those 14 states with a big vote out of South Carolina,” said Clyburn.
After damaging losses in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada, Biden needs a powerful mandate from black voters in South Carolina.
He hopes to win to gain momentum going into several other southern states that vote on Super Tuesday just three days later, including Alabama, North Carolina, Virginia, and Texas.
Biden hopes to be declared the winner early in the evening on Saturday after polls close at 7 p.m. in order to convey a sense of an overwhelming win — in sharp contrast to the close and chaotic results in Iowa and the drawn-out count in Nevada.
Sanders insists that he has far more support from young voters and black voters in South Carolina than in 2016, when he was demolished in the state by Hillary Clinton.
“He really learned his lesson and he has worked hard to win support,” Robertson said.
Unlike Biden, Sanders doesn’t need a win in South Carolina to juice his performance on Super Tuesday. His vaunted and wellfunded organization has been working hard in California for months, where he is counting on Latinos and young voters powering him to a big win. He also believes he can win delegate-rich Texas.
Steyer has won a big slice of the black vote by campaigning hard in South Carolina and pouring millions of dollars into television ads.
But he turned in a shaky performance in the most recent debate and may lose voters concerned about his realistic chances in the race.
Warren once hoped for a win in South Carolina and has worked hard to cultivate support among black women in particular.
Buttigieg is still trying to show Democratic voters he can compete for a slice of the black vote.
Even though he has made a concerted pitch for black voters and even poached Clyburn’s grandson for his campaign, Mayor Pete will probably be lucky to sneak into double digits.