BAT’S INCREDIBLE
Yankees looking for ways to make sure they can take advantage of Andujar’s offense
Before spring training started, there was an argument to be made that Miguel Andujar, talented as he is, could start the season in the minors because of the star power around him.
The thinking being that the Yankees could afford to stash him and prioritize development over big-league impact, despite the fact that he finished second in the AL Rookie of the Year race two seasons ago. Not only was he being blocked by the Bombers’ deep lineup at the position he plays (third), but the team is teaching him two new positions (left field, first base) this spring.
That theory was viable last month. Doesn’t last month feel like a millennium ago?
Now that the rubbery, Scooby-Doo style mask was ripped off the 2020 season, revealing that we’re living in a dastardly 2019 remix (replete with injuries to the same players) Andujar’s performance in the early months could be vital to the Yankees’ chances at winning the division, and more.
Doubling up on power
Forget Andujar’s dreadful and limited 2019, it’s hard to carry groceries with a torn labrum, let alone swing a bat with authority. The 25-yearold completed a historic rookie season that portends to great things.
In 2018, Andujar hit .297 with 27 home runs and 92 RBI across 606 plate appearances. His offensive output was 30% better than the league, per Fangraphs. He broke Joe DiMaggio’s 1936 team rookie doubles record — a record so old, if Andujar was around in the ’30s, the Dominican Republic native wouldn’t have been allowed to compete against the Yankees great. Unlike DiMaggio, Andujar excelled against the absolute best ballplayers in the world.
Even better, Andujar’s 47 doubles are tied for the most ever among rookies aged 25 or under. He’s in good company: Albert Pujols, Fred Lynn and Ryan Zimmerman are tied with the Yankees slugger, The trio has 21 All-Star appearances over their careers.
Why isolate the doubles ranking by age 25? Simple: flashing doubles power is a good indicator of future power growth. Whether it’s increased coordination, selectivity, or just developing strength through your twenties, those line drives in the gap tend to carry a little bit farther when players approach their prime.
To use a quick example among Andujar’s elite company: among the 17 other rookies who were 25 or younger and hit at least 40 doubles, 12 boosted their home run output in at least one of their following two seasons. What could Andujar — who already got close to 30 home runs — look like with a little more seasoning and a higher one-rep max on the bench?
Taking the leap
But reaching that ceiling will mean continued maturation.
Andujar’s greatest gift at the plate is his lightning-quick bat speed. The next time Andujar’s at the plate, watch how long he’s able to stay back on pitches. It allows him to place a decent hack on tough pitches. Example: no one should be able to hit a 94-mph fastball on the black like this, yet Andujar creamed this Chris Martin fastball into center field:
Yet Andujar’s Statcast data, which tracks how well the ball is traveling off his bat, suggests otherwise. His exit velocity is in the 62nd percentile — good but nothing incredible. His hard-hit percentage was actually below average (44th percentile). Based on this information, his expected offense relative to the league was measured slightly below the league average. What gives?
My best guess is that Andujar’s gift is one he can utilize better. Just because Andujar
can literally hit anything they throw at him, doesn’t mean he should. Andujar is so good at covering the plate, he doesn’t need to be that selective to be effective.
Look at his general ability to get the bat on the ball — Andujar’s contact rate on pitches outside the strike zone was 40th out of 141 qualifying batters. But his unnecessary (at times) aggression shows up in other ways. He chased over a third of would-be balls at a rate tying pre-breakout Tim Anderson for 12th worst percentage in baseball. His 4.1% walk rate was in the bottom 4% of the league.
The metrics concurrently undersell how good he can be when he connects with good pitches while illustrating a key growth area. He’s better off using that prodigious bat speed to check his swing until he gets something he can lace into left center.
Selectivity takes time, but at just 25, time is absolutely on his side.
Can’t spell Andujar without ‘D’
Of course, with Gio Urshela’s emergence and Andujar’s well-publicized defensive issues at the hot corner, the third baseman seemed like a man without a home. Come playoff time, the Yankees were platooning Andujar in the middle innings.
The team wisely began giving him reps in the outfield and first base this spring. Now, he might be second or third on the team’s outfield depth chart now that Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge are both uncertain for Opening Day, while Aaron Hicks is targeting a mid-summer return from his Tommy John surgery.
But, if he becomes a corner outfielder that can fill in at third, he’s got the Judge/Stanton starter pack of athletic skills.
First: he’s fast on the basepaths, ranking at or above the 71st percentile in 2018 and 2019 in sprint speed, indicating that his speed could be put to greater use covering ground in left. Judge’s been tracked as an above-average runner (no worse than the 74th percentile the last two years) while Stanton has ranked above average every year since 2015.
Second: he’s got a cannon for an arm, giving him the ability to keep runners honest when he fields the ball. As much as he struggled at third, we saw glimpses in 2018.
Andujar’s problem was never throwing ability but ultimately, his ability to react to rockets in either direction. Moving a few dozen yards back will give him plenty of time to make those reads appropriately.
The Yankees best lineup still has Judge, Stanton, and Hicks — that’s not up for debate. Yet, Andujar has the potential to be one of the best nine hitters on the team, and maybe a lot more. Now, he can cultivate that talent in the big leagues, where he belongs.