Final 4 value picks: Duke, WVU
The Final Four is in Atlanta this year. Will your favorite team be playing in the final weekend of the NCAA Tournament?
The oddsmakers at FanDuel Sportsbook have posted odds for the Final Four participants.
No. 1 Kansas is the most likely team to reach the final weekend. The Jayhawks are -140 to play in the Final Four. Baylor (-110) and Gonzaga (-110), two other projected 1-seeds, are the only other teams better than even-money.
Here's a look at odds for the 12 most likely teams to advance to the the Final Four: Kansas: -140 Gonzaga: -110
Baylor: -110
Dayton: +180
Duke: +250 Kentucky: +250 Maryland: +300 Louisville: +300
San Diego State: +350 Michigan State: +350 Florida State: +350
Oregon: +350 Villanova: +500 Michigan: +500 Auburn:+500
We know which teams are most likely to be in Atlanta, but is there value wagering on the favorites?
To determine if a team is a good bet, we looked at current odds to make the Final Four and compared that to our projected odds based on 10,000 simulations of Joe Lunardi's Bracketology.
After running the analysis, two teams popped as good bets to make the Final Four.
Duke Blue Devils
Current odds: +250, Implied probability: 28.6%
Blue Devils reach Final Four 34.3% of the time
Duke has lost three of its past five games, including dropping back-to-back outings last week. The poor recent play has knocked the Blue Devils from No. 6 to No. 12 in the AP Poll.
While pollsters are prone to overreact, the underlying numbers haven't changed for Coach K's team. The Action Network's college basketball power ratings ranked Duke as the sixth-best team in the country before its skid. Duke remained at No. 6 even after the uncharacteristic cold stretch.
Why? The Blue Devils are No. 5 in KenPom's rankings — one of three teams among the top 11 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
All teams hit rough patches during the season. Savvy bettors understand this and can capitalize by betting inflated lines. Duke is currently +250 to reach the Final Four, but our model would give it +190 odds.
The Blue Devils will finish up their regular season on Saturday against rival North Carolina before next week's ACC Tournament. Heading into that matchup, Duke is listed at +1700 to win the 2020 NCAA Tournament.
West Virginia Mountaineers
Current odds: +850, Implied probability: 10.5% Mountaineers reach Final Four 13.4% of the time WVU is in a free fall. The
Mountaineers have lost three in a row and six of their past seven, though context is important. Two of the defeats came against Kansas and Baylor and four losses were on the road.
This recent run of poor play has knocked Bob Huggins' team out of the Top 25. But like Duke, the advanced stats are higher on WVU than the polls. According to KenPom, West Virginia is No. 14 in the country and our power ratings have it at No. 26.
West Virginia plays a suffocating style of defense that ranks No. 3 in defensive efficiency. Opponents are going to struggle to score against this team in the tournament. With just enough scoring, the Mountaineers are capable of making a run to the Final Four.
West Virginia's final regular season game is Saturday against No. 4 Baylor, a team that beat the Mountaineers, 70-59, on Feb. 15 in Waco.
At +4500, West Virginia is tied with Houston with the 20th-best betting odds to win the national championship.