Fear of the unknown is why Clowney,
Uncertainty about the 2020 NFL season could have owners wary of doling out any more large contracts until they know the immediate investment is worth it.
One GM posited that theory to NBC’s Peter King for Monday’s Football Morning in America column, and it’s not unreasonable to think this is why former No. 1 overall pick free agents such as Jadeveon Clowney, Cam Newton and Jameis Winston remain unsigned.
“Some owners have to be concerned there might not be football, or it might be a shortened season, and their income could be drastically affected,” the GM said.
I have another potential explanation, however, after chatting with a cap expert, that the coronavirus pandemic has inadvertently put a twist on teams’ management of the 2021 compensatory draft pick formula.
In short, per the collective bargaining agreement, free agents are only eligible to count toward the compensatory pick calculation if they are signed by 4 p.m. on the Monday following the NFL Draft, which this year falls on April 27.
Normally, NFL teams would be opening in-person offseason workouts by early-to-mid-April, so they’d want new players in the building sooner than that date.
But this year’s coronavirus pandemic has the entire country social distancing until at least May, which has delayed all in-person offseason workouts indefinitely.
So teams interested in the pricier free agents — even if they have handshake agreements at the moment — have plenty incentive to wait until 4:01 p.m. on April 27 to make the signing official and avoid impacting their 2021 draft.
For those unfamiliar, a team’s compensatory picks for the 2021 NFL Draft will be calculated by measuring the amount of qualified unrestricted free agents that the team signs this spring against the amount they lose to other clubs.
Free agents qualify if they are determined to be among the top 35% of all NFL players, calculated using a formula that heavily factors the salary on the free agent’s new contract. A player inside the league’s top five percent equates to a third round pick, between five and 10% to a fourth-rounder, between 10-15% to a fifth-rounder, and so on through the seven-round draft.
Each team’s free agents gained and lost in a given year are then measured against each other and canceled out to reveal where they will gain a compensatory selection the following year.
For reference, Nick Korte’s compensatory draft picks cancellation chart at overthecap.com provides the best online