New hurdle for old dog
Draft rules may keep Dave in comfort zone
Dave Gettleman has run seven NFL drafts as a GM while sitting in the same room with all of his assistant GMs, cap experts, consiglieres, coaches and scouts.
And he has never traded down.
Not in five drafts with the Carolina Panthers. Not in two with the Giants.
And now on April 23, holding the No. 4 overall pick, Gettleman and the rest of the Giants’ decision makers will be required to draft remotely from their private residences due to the coronavirus pandemic.
So you tell me: how likely is it that Gettleman makes his firstever draft day trade down for assets in that unorthodox, inefficient, technology-complicated format? With co-owner John Mara only able to oversee and sign off, while on the clock, from his own home?
Even the GMs who are traditionally eager to make draft day trades will find the process more complicated and could become more risk averse in the heat of the moment.
Now consider that for the Giants to make an on-the-clock draft-day trade in this quarantined spring of 2020, it would require at minimum a four-way call between Gettleman, coach Joe Judge, assistant GM Kevin Abrams, and ownership while the clock ticks and pressure builds.
The Giants, therefore, need to exhaust all options on a trade back immediately. They need to field teams’ best trade offers sooner rather than later if they’re serious about trying to maximize their leverage.
Granted, all 32 NFL teams have had their offseason hijacked. So GMs are multitasking and playing catch-up on the scouting end, and that could complicate any certainty they bring to the negotiating table.
Still, we’re talking about the top 10 here. Every NFL team has a more than general sense already of whom they consider the best players in this draft, even if they’re still tinkering and deliberating and sliding names up and down the seven rounds.
And the two primary prerequisites to prompt attractive top-10 trades are there: 1) a group of coveted quarterbacks, and 2) a host of teams with multiple first-round picks.
Joe Burrow (LSU), Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama), Justin Herbert (Oregon) and Jordan Love (Utah State) are all projected first-rounders.
The Dolphins (Nos. 5, 18, 26) have three first-round picks. And four teams have two: the Niners (13 and 31), the Jaguars (nine and 20), the Raiders (12 and 19), and the Vikings (22 and 25).
The Dolphins at No. 5, the Chargers at No. 6, and the Jaguars at No. 9 all are clear candidates to trade up. The Giants will have competition for a trade back with the Detroit Lions at No. 3 at the very least.
Obviously, it could be difficult to find a team willing to trade up to No. 4 this minute, since that club would run the risk of being leap-frogged later into the top three. But that doesn’t mean the Giants shouldn’t try.
Two years ago, more than a month out from the 2018 NFL Draft, the Colts traded back three slots with the Jets from No. 3 and acquired three second-round picks. The Jets got their quarterback, Sam Darnold.
The Colts’ picks turned into starting stud offensive guard Quenton Nelson at No. 6, starting offensive tackle Braden Smith, starting corner Rock YaSin, and (for the Eagles in a subsequent flip) tight end Dallas Goedert.
The Giants desperately need both talent and depth. Their best-case scenario in this draft would be to trade down slightly, still land a blue-chip player, and acquire a haul of additional capital to build their young roster from the ground up.
No doubt they’ve felt around for trade possibilities already. Teams often lay the groundwork for draft-day deals. And Gettleman declared the Giants “open for business” at February’s NFL Combine in Indianapolis, so he could be well on his way.
Gettleman immediately couched his “open for business” characterization, however, with caution.
“Trading back has its danger,” he said. “What happens if you trade back eight spots… we’re at four, let’s say we trade back to eight (and) there’s only four players that we like. What if they’re all gone? Now what are you going to do? You’re going to trade back again? You can trade yourself back out of good players.”
So that is how Gettleman really feels. Now imagine him on a Zoom call or on Microsoft Teams, with 10 or 20 minutes to say yes or no to trading back for the first time in his GM career.
The Giants can and will prepare for a million different scenarios, but given that Gettleman is a career scout who already is wary of trading “out of good players,” it stretches the imagination to believe he would be eager to swing it this year.
The one qualifier would be if Judge brings the “Patriots Way” of valuation and draft management, and if his say leads to a change in philosophy. Barring that, however, the clock is already ticking if Gettleman and the Giants aim to make the best use of their leverage.