Broncos needs to let Lock rip it
The NFL has seen an influx of young quarterback talent over the past few seasons. As the established figures begin to head out the door, a new wave of quarterbacks are entering the league.
The 2019 NFL Draft pumped out five quarterbacks who received major playing time as rookies and all five are slated to start for their teams during the 2020 season. Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins, Drew Lock and Gardner Minshew have a chance to join the next wave of long-term starting quarterbacks.
This series is going to profile one second-year quarterback per day, going in reverse order of their number of pass attempts, starting with Denver’s Drew Lock.
WHERE HE’S GOOD
Lock has rare arm strength. He’s on the level of guys like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford. He can rifle throws from uncomfortable platforms and is able to put velocity on passes that travel far down field.
That talent hasn’t always manifested itself in consistent production, but the flashes of greatness are there. Lock isn’t a refined thrower, but his arm is so strong that he doesn’t need to be perfectly in rhythm in order to drop bombs all over the field.
Lock also showed a nice ability to execute the Broncos’ play-action series. According to Pro Football Reference, he averaged 8.11 yards per play-action attempt, which was slightly higher than the league average of 8.07.
Denver’s play-action series wasn’t overly complicated and featured short throws designed to create advantageous situations for yards after the catch, but Lock still played a part in making sure his receivers were able to maximize their ability to gain yards.
Lock was sacked on only 3.1% of his non-scramble dropbacks. The league average for the season was 6.7% and the Rams finished first in sack percentage by allowing 3.4% of their non-scramble dropbacks to end in sacks.
Lock’s mark of 3.1% was a massive drop from the other Denver quarterbacks. Joe Flacco had a sack percentage of 9.7% and Brandon Allen was sacked on 9% of his dropbacks. Lock was able to drastically reduce Denver’s sack numbers.
WHERE HE AND THE BRONCOS CAN IMPROVE
Even though Lock has one of the strongest arms in the league, and was known for his gun-slinging at the University of Missouri, he was a fairly conservative passer last season.
According to Pro Football Reference, he averaged only 6.8 intended air yards per pass attempt. The league average for intended air yards per pass attempt was 8.15. However, this may be a product of the Broncos’ scheme under offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello, who is now an assistant for the Eagles. For the season, Denver averaged 6.91 intended air yards per attempt (29th in the NFL) and they had three quarterbacks throw at least 80 passes on the season (Flacco and Allen).
Denver hired former Giants head coach Pat Shurmur to replace Scangarello for this upcoming season and he should be bringing a more aggressive offense to the Broncos. In 2019, the Giants averaged 8.1 intended air yards per pass attempt, which ranked 16th in the NFL.
Throwing downfield more doesn’t always lead to offensive efficiency, however. The Buccaneers led the league with 10.2 intended air yards per attempt and the Bills’ mark of 9.1 intended air yards was fifth. The Chiefs ranked 12th with a figure of 8.5 intended air yards per attempt.
In 2019, the Broncos and Giants both averaged 6.7 yards per pass attempt and both were in the bottom third of offenses in terms of points per drive.
It’s easy to see why Broncos fans are optimistic Lock will turn into a capable starter. He has supreme physical talent and three stud receiving options to grow with in Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant and rookie wide receiver Jerry Jeudy.
However, Lock has a lot to prove before he can be considered as a long-term NFL starter. His accuracy can be erratic at times and he needs to work on not staring down his receivers.