NYC IS BACK ON HORSE!
Breaking down today’s Belmont Stakes
The last leg of the Triple Crown will be the first.
The mile-and-a-half distance has been cut to a mile-and-one eighth.
And there will be no fans or owners packing the stands at Belmont Park.
In this far-from-normal year of 2020, that has been laid waste by the coronavirus, the horse racing world begins a most unusual race for the Triple Crown this Saturday with the 152nd running of the Belmont Stakes.
”It’s going to be a far different scene for sure,” trainer Todd Pletcher told the Associated Press. “It’s sad in some ways, but we’re grateful we’re getting an opportunity to run.”
The Kentucky Derby, the traditional start of the Triple Crown, will be the second jewel this year on Sept. 5, followed by the Preakness Stakes on Oct. 3. And it will be interesting to see if the casual race fan will even remember there is a Kentucky Derby nearly three months from now. One more thing about the Belmont: The distance change will have the horses starting in the far corner of the gigantic track instead of in front of the grandstand.
So now that the particulars are set: Who is going to win the race? Well you have one clearcut favorite and then the rest of the field. Let’s take a look:
Tiz the Law (6-5 odds, No. 8 post), the New York-bred horse from Sackatoga Stables, has the pedigree with Tapit in his family and he is the only horse to have won a Grade 1 Stakes race (Florida Derby and the Champagne Stakes, which was also run at Belmont). And wouldn’t it be nice if trainer Barclay Tagg, at 82 years young, finally wins this race. He brought Funny Cide, who won the first two legs of the Triple Crown, here in 2003 but he finished third to Empire
Maker. Many feel it’s Tiz the
Law’s race to lose.
In the Florida Derby on March 28, it was an easy hand ride most of the way by jockey Manny Franco and Tiz was clearly the class of the field going off at 7-5. In the Holy Bull on Feb. 2, Tiz the Law, who has won four out of his five races, took the early lead, had to back up briefly in the race, but was again an easy winner. Expect him to be just off the pace early and then turn it on right before the final turn.
Now, who else can challenge Tiz the Law and hit the board?
Tap It to Win (6-1, No. 1 post) has won his last two, both in allowances races. This after two 10th-place finishes, including a stinker in the Breeders’ Cup Grade 1 futurity. Has the pedigree, and the speed, but needs to put it all together.
Sole Volante (9-2, No. 2 post) is the second-choice and raced 10 days ago in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park. He finished second to 49-1 longshot King Guillermo in the Tampa Bay Derby (Grade 2) where he charged late, but never contended. In the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis, much of the same. Sole
Volante, who will break from the 2-hole, was way back and charged late to win. So expect him to be off the pace early, charging late. Can he win? Maybe. Likely to hit the board.
Max Player (15-1, No. 3 post) is lightly raced but intriguing. He was off the pace in the Grade 3 Withers on Feb. 2, but made a nice charge late to take the win. That race was a 1 1/8 and he seems to be suited for this race. In his family is A.P. Indy, who won the Belmont Stakes in 1992. Like the price; use in exotics and has potential to win.
Modernist (15-1, No. 4 post) was impressive in the Grade 2 Risen Star on Feb. 15, steeled against the rail and ran away from Major Fed. In the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, just over a month later, going off from the No. 14 post, Modernist perhaps used up too much to get in the mix, and didn’t have it late, finishing third. Interesting and has the better post here.
Farmington Road (15-1, No. 5 post) was not involved in the Risen Star, finished second in the Oaklawn Stakes and fourth in the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby on May 2, where he was dead last at one point. Nadal, for what it’s worth, was very impressive in winning before being retired with a leg fracture. But a hard pass on Farmington Road.
Fore Left (30-1, No. 6 post) has been heavily raced, finishing anywhere from 1st to 10th. He won his last race in the Grade 3 UAE Guineas Stakes, going wire-to-wire. Could see him in an exacta box with Tiz the Law; and he could also finish last.
Jungle Runner (50-1, No. 7 post) finished last in his last race, the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. Boy, Charlatan was impressive in that race! What a Belmont we could have had if Charlatan, who is also going to miss the Kentucky Derby with an ankle injury, and Nadal were racing. There will be no rumble in the Jungle on Saturday.
Dr Post (5-1, No. 9 post) is lightly raced but this Todd Pletcher horse is gaining momentum. Post should not bother Dr. Post. But I don’t have a feeling on him.
Pneumatic (8-1, No. 10 post) is another lightly-raced horse, finishing third in the Grade 3 Matt Winn at Churchill Downs on May 23, and we would feel better about him if we were starting with the Kentucky Derby.
I couldn’t resist tweeting at Daily News legend Mighty Quinn (@MightyQuinnNYDN) to see what crazy logic he was using to bet the Belmont. And I was not disappointed. Here is what he tweeted: “Have to give out in code: Bet the Digger O’Dell number horse. One guy (I) played cards with was a grave digger named Billy O’Dell. When a “two” (hit the) board during a 7-card stud game he’d yell, “Damn, those twos will put me in an early grave.” And the name Digger O’Dell was born. Number 2 horse wins Belmont.”
With that said, the betting plan is a $10 trifecta box using Tiz the Law, Max Player and Fore Left.