Is it time to venture out?
As America reopens, how to assess risk of going to stores, restaurants & salons
In most parts of the United States, you can now grab a drink with your friends at a bar, eat inside a restaurant, get your
hair washed and cut in a salon, and try on clothes in a store.
Manicures and pedicures are generally allowed, as is working out in a gym and even getting a massage to soothe your stressed-out muscles.
It sounds like a dream come true after all those months cooped up at home — but at the same time, for many of us, something feels off.
Sure, we want the economy to reopen and do the things that used to bring us joy. But then we remember that the virus hasn’t actually disappeared. In fact, in some parts of the country, the number of people infected is still rising each day.
And so we wonder: Is it really safe to be out and about? If I care about my own health and the health of my family and neighbors, should I be resisting the urge to patronize businesses in person even if my local government says I can?
We spoke with epidemiologists and physicians about what has changed since stayat-home orders were first put in place, what remains the same and what we can do to be responsible citizens as we move into the summer months.
■ First things first: The virus hasn’t changed, and the pandemic is not over.
The first thing to remember is that the coronavirus is no less deadly or contagious now than it was three months ago, when the country all but shut down.
“It’s still the same virus that has caused an average of 1,000 U.S. deaths a day and 4,000 around the world,” said Dr. Tom Inglesby, director of the Center for Health Security at Johns Hopkins University. “I’m worried that people have accepted where we are as the new normal. This is not normal.”
And it’s not like we are nearing the end of the pandemic either, said Carolyn Cannuscio, director of research at the Center for Public Health Initiatives at the University of Pennsylvania.
Far from it.
Studies suggest just 5% of the U.S. population has been infected with the virus thus far. To get herd immunity, 60% to 70% of the population will need to be infected.
■ However, we do know more about it than we used to.
Even as coronavirus infections and fatalities continue to grow, some experts say it is safer to venture out into the world today than it was when most stay-at-home orders first went into effect.
“I would say it’s a lot safer,” said Gerardo Chowell, a professor of mathematical epidemiology at Georgia State University. “We have a lot more information about the enemy.”
Back in March and April, we still did not know that the virus spread primarily through the droplets expressed when we cough, sneeze, shout or sing without wearing masks.
We also didn’t know about the potential for asymptomatic transmission or the potential for presymptomatic transmission, he said.
“Now, assuming that the population at large has this information, we have the power to protect ourselves,” he said.
Specifically, several studies have shown that wearing face masks can drastically reduce the spread of the virus.
So, even if you live in a state where the virus is circulating more now than it was in March, we now know that your chances of becoming infected are relatively low if you are careful about wearing a mask, social distancing and washing your hands.
■ Many hospitals are better prepared to treat COVID-19 patients.
One of the reasons we all stayed at home for three months was to slow the outbreak’s spread and give hospitals time to prepare for a surge in COVID-19 patients as the numbers of infections inevitably ticked up.
“We didn’t eliminate the virus, but we pumped the brakes on it,” said Dr. Armand Dorian, chief medical officer for Verdugo Hills Hospital of the University of Southern California.
In the past few months, most hospitals have put that grace period to good use, Dorian said. Among other things, they’ve stocked up on personal protective equipment for medical professionals and obtained more ventilators.
Health workers have also learned more about how to treat the sickest patients.
Now, doctors know to consider therapeutics like dexamethasone, remdesivir, anti-inflammatories and rheumatoid arthritis medication. They’ve learned to have patients lie prone on their bellies and to not intubate them right away.
■ What to consider before going out for dinner, drinks or shopping
Where does this all leave us? Is it OK to go out to eat? Get your hair cut? Go shopping for something besides groceries?
All the experts say that to make the most responsible decision, you’ll have to consider many factors. For example, what are the daily case counts looking like in your region? If the numbers are going down, it’s probably safer than if they are going up.
Do you have underlying issues that could mean the virus is more likely to hit you especially hard? Do you live with someone who has underlying issues? That should factor into your decision-making too.
Also, know what steps the businesses you want to patronize are taking to protect you from the virus. Are the employees wearing masks? Are they limiting the number of people allowed in the store at a time? Are they frequently sanitizing the space?
“In my opinion, the government is not doing an adequate job preparing businesses to reopen,” said Chunhuei Chi, director of the Center for Global Health at Oregon State University. “So the risk lies in how well a particular store is doing.”
His personal strategy is to wait for more adventurous friends to let him know which shops and restaurants feel the most safe.
Over time, Chi hopes stores will learn best practices from each other.
“My assumption — and kind of wishful thinking — is that restaurants, bars and clothing shops will have to do a good job keeping their business safe for customers if they want to survive,” he said.
■ The challenge of individual responsibility
What makes all of this so confusing is that without clear advice from local health authorities about what is safe and what is not, people with no formal training in epidemiology are now making health decisions that can affect not just them, but those with whom they come in contact.
Cannuscio suggests that a good rule of thumb is to think critically about what activities are necessary and what would just feel really good.
“The risks I’m willing to take to access a luxury are fewer than the risks I would take in other arenas,” she said.