Jet rocket science
Teen puts new spin on Gang’s analytics
The smartest, shrewdest, deepest thinker in the Jets universe is 19 years old, lives with his parents just outside Charlotte and pawns off household chores on his two younger brothers. He is wise beyond his years, a beautiful mind willing to share what he knows about a star-crossed franchise. He is an enigma, a realist and a proponent of looking beyond the surface. He challenges you to think in different ways. He is not blissfully ignorant.
Who in the world is Michael Nania? When a stat-driven stranger surfaced on social media a few years ago with unconventional ways of telling stories about his favorite team, curiosity grew on 1 Jets Drive.
Nania looked at the Jets through a different lens. His analytics bent raised eyebrows, prompting back-channel conversations from people in the organization. Some praised him. Others questioned him. One reporter on the Jets beat went so far as to lift his material without crediting him.
Who is this guy?
Most people figured that Nania was a middle-aged 9-to-5er with a wife, two kids and a dog, who had spare time to dive into his favorite team. His articles on various fan websites differed from the gardenvariety pom-pom stories devoid of depth. It was obvious back in 2015 when Nania was a high school sophomore posting on the fan page of GangGreenNation.com that he was destined for bigger things.
Nania graduated high school and spent a semester at Appalachian State before devoting all his time to creating a new online venture – www.JetsXFactor.com –
this year. He paired with Robby Sabo to marry film study and analytics, providing a nuanced look at Gang Green.
“He painfully combs through hours of footage to cultivate original analytics,” Sabo said. “Who in the world would ever come up with original special teams blocking numbers?”
Sabo built the site with an eye on providing a fresh perspective on the Jets. He chose to partner with Nania after being exposed to years of exhaustive numbersdriven data from the teenager.
“It was enough to make my head explode,” Sabo said.
Nania crashed into the Jets universe by accident.
When his father, Mike, a lifelong Giants fan, couldn't afford tickets to his favorite team, he split a Jets season-ticket package with relatives in 2011. Nania's fandom has always been shaped by a love for numbers.
His interest in all facets of the team grew exponentially. Before long, he was creating smart new ways to study the Jets, culminating in an exhaustive study on the new centerpiece of the franchise.
The Sam Darnold Project was an enormous undertaking that included carefully examining every one of the young quarterback's nearly thousand drop-backs over two seasons. Nania graded each play on a 10-point scale, watching and rewatching all elements of each snap (in 26 games) from the All-22 coaches film.
“Quarterback is easily the toughest position to analyze,” Nania said. “There's so much lost in the box score. Tips, interceptions, dropped passes, pressures. So, I wanted to see which games were his best and worst regardless of what the box score said. When you do it that way, you can really notice a lot of things that you don't by just looking at the stats.”
Nania created a color-coded chart dissecting every drop-back, widening his field of vision to factor in best options on a given play. He didn't know Darnold's progressions based on each play, so it was an inexact science. But the teenager's thought process extended far beyond the norm.
Average plays like a screen pass or throwing the ball away if nobody was open earned a baseline grade of five. Nania gave Darnold a 10 for his touchdown pass on the run to Jamison Crowder on the sideline against the Ravens in Week 15. He gave the quarterback a zero for his illadvised interception in the end zone in Miami in Week 9. There was a final grade for each game on a 100-point scale.
Nania's checklist on each play is exhaustive before a grade is assigned.
How much pressure did Darnold face? Was there an open target in his field of view that he could have hit? How good was the separation from wide receivers? Did he check the ball down when he could have hit an open target downfield? Did he attempt an ill-advised throw downfield when an open underneath option was available?
Nania's five-year plan is in pencil. Perhaps he'll return to school. Maybe he'll turn this new venture with Sabo and analyst Joe Blewett into a money-making machine. A smart NFL team that embraces sharp young minds could come calling. He's excited about what lies ahead.
“Nania will say that he wants to focus on Jets X-Factor,” Sabo said. “And that's great. But I say, ‘Keep focusing on Nania.'”
Who would have ever thought that the smartest guy in the room was only 19?