1st and 2nd downs are key to Gase’s success with Jets this season
Adam Gase scribbled six wordsonthewhiteboard in his office soon after getting the Jets head coaching gig last year: The best revenge is massive success.
Gase went on to become the architect of the statistically worst-ranked offense in the 61year history of the Jets franchise, shattering records that nobody wants to shatter.
Sometimes the numbers lie, but the 2019 analytics revealed a sobering reality for a guy bent on proving everyone wrong after his failures in Miami. Gase's offense circled the drain in virtually every major statistical category, but a more troubling pattern bubbled beneath the surface.
A failure on first and second downs coupled with predictable situational play-calling ultimately cost Gase in a big way. The Jets ranked dead last in Sharp Football's Early Down Success Rate, a metric tracking percentage of first downs before you even reach third down. In other words, how often do you get a first down on first or second down?
Gang Green's 31st ranked third-down conversation rate (30.66%) was a by-product of blunders on earlier downs. The Jets averaged a league-high 8.3 yards to go on third downs (up from 7.5 in 2018).
Third down success and failures grab headlines, but poor coaching and execution on first and second downs were the real anchors that sunk Gase's group last year. That must change for the Jets to have any chance to markedly improve in 2020.
“It was absolutely atrocious,” GasesaidThursdayofhisoffense last season. “Everything last year. Just throw out all that. All those stats were terrible. … There's a lot things when we went back and looked through all those situations. … There's a lot of growing going on, especially from players not happy with some of the things. When you look back at it now, their knowledge now compared to when we were playing last year — especially at the beginningoftheyear—it'ssomuch different to where guys will be
Adam Gase’s offense was worst in franchise history last season.
like, ‘ Why would I do that? I should have just done this [and] we would have got the first [down].'”
Players might have made mistakes, but Gase is far from blameless. His predictable play-calling had a significant impact on the offensive shortcomings.
Consider that Gase called the third-most run plays in 2nd and 10-plus yards to go situations last season, according to Sharp Football. The Jets averaged 3.0 yards per carry on those runs, consistently setting up nightmarish third-and-longs. Those failures in the run game came against the 10th easiest scheduleofrundefenses.(Onthe bright side, the Jets will face the third-east schedule of run defenses entering this season).
Gase has plenty of good ideas, but he needs to implement them better on game days.
Consider: TheJetsrantheball 70% of the time (third most) out of a 12 personnel grouping (1 running back, 2 tight ends, 2 receivers), or 17% higher than the league average. Defenses easily sniffed out those predictable runs from heavy sets. The Jets averaged 2.4 yards per carry in 12 personnel, per Sharp Football. Gasewasmorepredictableoutof 22 personnel with runs on 93% of the snaps (well above the 80% league average).
He also needs to be more flexible when things just aren't working.
Gase's refusal to break away from 11 personnel (one running back, 1 tight end, three receivers) whenitwasn'teffectivewascurious.
The Jets used 11 personnel on 69% of the snaps through the first three quarters — or 11% higher than the league average — but ranked in the bottom five in yards per attempt (6.5), touchdown-to-interception ratio (12:12) and sack percentage (sacked on 10% of drop-backs).
It might be a passing league, but it's simply not smart football to refuse to adjust if a particular personnel grouping isn't working.
Gase's stubbornness was at the root of the offensive issues last season. The results were hardly surprising. The Jets finished 32nd in yards per play and 31st in first downs.
Gase's track record for logging a shockingly low number of offensive plays per game continued for a fourth consecutive year as head coach. The Jets were 28th in plays per game (59.8) in 2019. Gase's Dolphins finished 32nd, 22nd and 32nd in plays per game.
“That's part of the growth,” Gase said about the league's worst offense last season. “It's frustrating when you're going through it. And when you did as poorly as we did that first half of the season, it just crushes you for the whole season. But there was so much positive turnaround. We had really good games. We had good conversions. We had better first and second downs. We just got to make sure that we do that earlier in the season this year and be consistent throughout the year.”
Gase has a good opportunity tolearnfromhisfailingsfromlast year if he's more creative and flexible with his play-calls withoutmakingittoocomplicatedfor players. It's the best way to find the massive success he craves.