Quinn safe in ATL? Don’t bet on it

With a quarter of the 2020 NFL season in the books, our staff is looking ahead to this weekend's games.

Find out which picks they've made for Week 5 below.

Raheem Palmer: Panthers +2.5, +115 ML at Falcons

With the Atlanta Falcons falling to 0-4 after Monday night's 30-16 loss to the Green Bay Packers, Dan Quinn is on the short list of coaches who could lose his job soon. The market is pricing the Falcons' upcoming game against the Carolina Panthers as a buylow spot, but given the circumstances, how can you lay points — let alone back this team?

Quinn is a defensiveminded coach, but the Falcons haven't been particularly inspiring on defense for most of his tenure.

The only thing this defense has proven it can stop is Mitchell Trubisky.

The Falcons have also been riddled with injuries this season: They've been without starting safeties Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen as well as starting cornerbacks A.J. Terrell and Darqueze Dennard. Then things got worse on Monday night as Julio Jones left the game with a nagging hamstring injury and the Falcons lost key pieces in their secondary in safety Damontae Kazee (Achilles) and strong safety Jaylinn Hawkins (concussion).

I liked this better at +3.5, but I still like it at +2.5 — I think the Panthers have a chance at winning this one outright, so if it ticks down to +2 or lower, I would recommend just playing the moneyline instead. The Panthers also make a good Stanford Wong teaser leg to pair with New Orleans (Panthers +8.5/ Saints -1.5).

Matthew Freedman: Bengals +13.5 at Ravens

The Bengals intrigue me this week for a couple of reasons.

First, I've noticed that road underdogs tend to outper

Falcons coach Dan Quinn

form against the spread (ATS) when they play within the division, offering investors a vig-beating return on investment (ROI).

A 3.8% ROI might not seem like much, but over a sample this large it's significant. And we can dig further into this sample to discover more value.

I have this theory: Early in the year, when divisional opponents tend to face each other for the first time, road dogs have an undeniable edge relative to the market. Later in the year, when divisional rivals are more familiar with each other and their markets are more efficient, road dogs are disadvantaged when they meet for their rematch.

Still in the early days of October, the Bengals are in the sweet spot of this trend.

I would bet the Bengals down to +10.5 (-110).

I locked in the Seahawks early last week and I'm locking them in again.

The Seahawks continue to be underrated in the market despite their torrid start, and I get it — it's been the same story in Seattle for so long now that it feels like their story is written. They run, run, run, play lots of defense, and only break the Russell Wilson glass in case of emergency.

The only thing is that none of that is true this season.

Seattle's defense has been porous and beatable, and the

Seahawks continue to be aggressive passing on early downs. Wilson has an NFLrecord 16 passing touchdowns through four games after “only” two this past week. Wilson is shredding secondaries, and Minnesota's secondary is particularly shreddable.

Wilson throws the best deep ball in the game, and the Vikings are vulnerable deep.

It feels like Russ can cook against this Minnesota defense anytime he pleases. He's run roughshod over these Vikings before, and Mike Zimmer's defense also struggles to contain Wilson when he gets out of the pocket and creates. That will only be tougher with Anthony Barr out for the season.

When grabbing a line early in the week, you're looking to lock in a key number, and -7 is it. This is a Sunday night game, and money will come in on the favorite.

I think the Seahawks are closer to 10-point favorites. Grab them at -7 while you can.