L.A. won’t blow it again
BY RAHEEM PALMER Our NFL betting analyst Raheem Palmer breaks down the five Week 9 picks he made right away.
Chargers -1.5 vs. Raiders Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET on Sunday
What would this line be if the Chargers didn’t blow a 24-3 third-quarter lead?
Los Angeles made history on Sunday when it became the first team to blow leads of 16 points or more in four straight games. The Chargers now sit at 2-5 after losing five of their last six games.
The Chargers out-gained the Broncos in total yards (485-351), got more first downs (28-17) and were superior in third-down efficiency and time of possession. The Chargers were up 24-10 with 1:36 left in the third quarter with the ball in the red zone when a Justin Herbert interception ended a drive that could have all but iced the game.
Looking at the win probability chart of their last four games should tell you just how difficult it is to have a 1-3 record in these games. Nonetheless, we should expect this even out over the long run.
Despite an inability to close games, the Chargers have held leads of a touchdown or more over the Buccaneers, Saints and the defending Super Bowl-champion Chiefs, which says a lot about the overall quality of this team.
Herbert has been impressive in his rookie season, ranking in the top 10 in DVOA, third in passing yards per game (303.3), seventh in touchdowns (15) and eighth in ESPN QBR (77.1). With weapons like wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams around him, we should expect a big offensive performance against a Raiders team that is 31st in defensive efficiency and ranks 30th with just seven sacks this season.
With the Raiders playing their second-straight road game and still sporting a patchwork offensive line without Trent Brown, I expect Joey Bosa, Uchenna Nwosu and Melvin Ingram to have their way in this matchup.
The lookahead line was Chargers -2.5, and it’s clear they’re a better team than the Raiders. I’ll take Los Angeles to bounce back and would play this up to 2.5.
Seahawks-Bills Over 53.5 Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
Neither defense has much of a chance to stop the opposing offenses. The Seahawks are trending toward being one of the worst defenses in the league, ranking 28th in defensive efficiency and 30th against the pass while giving up 28.4 points per game. The Bills are 21st in defensive efficiency and allowing 24.9 points per game.
Oddsmakers opened this total at 51 and it was immediately bet up to where it currently sits at 53.5. Still, I’m not sure they can make these Seahawks totals high enough. This team is reminiscent of the 2019 Buccaneers that finished 12-4 in hitting the over.
Similar to the Jameis Winston-led Buccaneers, the game script of these Seahawks games lends itself to the over. If Seattle gets ahead, its secondary has no hopes of slowing down the opposing team. If the Seahawks get behind, the opposing team is at the mercy of Russell Wilson, who continues to dominate his way to a MVP season.
The Seahawks are first in points per game (34.3) and total success rate and second in offensive efficiency, yards per play (6.4) and early-down success rate. They’re also first in red-zone touchdown percentage, converting on 88% of trips inside of their opponent’s 20-yard line.
The Bills are no slouches offensively, as well, as they’re averaging 24.8 points per game and are sixth in total success rate and EPA, 10th in early down success rate and eighth in explosive play rate with 11% of their plays going for 20 yards or more.
Given Seattle’s defensive struggles, we should expect an offensive output from the Bills that’s trends more toward their first four games of the season, in which they averaged 30.75 points per game as opposed to the last four that have seen them averaged 18.75.
I played the over at 52, but I would take this up to 55.
Bears +6 at Titans & Over 46.5 Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday
The Titans had quite possibly the most disappointing performance of Week 8. If there was ever a get-right spot for a defense that is tied for 31st in sacks with just seven, it was this matchup against the Bengals.
Despite facing an offense that was sporting with four backup offensive lineman, the Titans didn’t record a single sack and gave up 31 points and 367 yards on offense. Their signing of Jadeveon Clowney has yet to help their pass rush and given their issues in the secondary, this defense has been a liability all season.
Joe Burrow completed 26 of 37 passes for 249 yards and two touchdowns despite 20 mph winds with gusts of 35, and the Titans defense allowed a whopping 61% of plays to be successful. Tennessee’s defense has struggled getting off the field all year, allowing opponents to convert 61.86% of their third downs. Sunday’s game was no different, as the Bengals were able to convert 10 of 15 third downs.
If the Titans’ inability to get sacks and get off the field on third down weren’t enough, they’re also allowing opponents to convert 80.8% of their red-zone trips into touchdowns.
Despite the ineptitude of the Bears’ offense, Chicago has performed well against bottom-tier defenses. They scored 27 points against the Lions, 30 against the Falcons, 23 against the Panthers and 23 against the Saints. This is a spot in which quarterback Nick Foles should have no problems scoring despite a struggling offensive line.
My model makes this game Titans -3.26, so we’re seeing a positive expected value proposition on the Bears at this price. Aside from their victory against the Bills, all of their victories have come by six points or fewer.
Underdogs have been a solid bet this year as they are 67-51 against the spread (56.8%). Digging deeper into the numbers, road underdogs of six points or fewer are 32-13 (72.1 %) ATS. With the declining impact of home-field advantage, it’s clear many of these home favorites are being mispriced by the market.
I would play this down to +4.5 and sprinkle a small percentage of your wager on the moneyline at +200.
There is also some value on the total given Tennessee’s offensive firepower and their defensive struggles.
The Titans are scoring 29.7 points per game and are third in offensive efficiency, and it’s clear they performed well under expectation in last week’s matchup against the Bengals. Multiple punts in Cincinnati territory, missed field goals and a red-zone interception negatively impacted the offensive impact for a team that put up 441 total yards and averaged 7.4 yards per play.
The Titans are 5-1 to the over this season with their lone under taking place during their opening week matchup against the Broncos. If the Titans get any positive regression, they’ll likely be 6-1 to the over after this week.