Panthers will scratch, claw
We have our first Saturday NFL games of the 2020 season, making it even more important to lock in early-week value.
Our staff has highlighted the spreads they’ve already bet for Week 15 below. Let’s dive right in.
Raheem Palmer: Teddy Bridgewater has been historically great against the spread (ATS) throughout his six-year career. He’s 33-13 (71.1%) ATS overall but 23-6 (79.3%) against the number as an underdog -- a role he finds himself in this Saturday in Green Bay.
Digging deeper into the numbers, Bridgewater and the Panthers are 0-3 as a favorite this season, but 6-3 as underdogs. Two of those losses came at the hands of the Buccaneers, who have clearly had the Panthers’ number. Otherwise they’ve covered as a 10-point road underdogs against the Chiefs, 7-point road underdogs against the Saints with Drew Brees at the helm, and as 6-point road underdogs against the Chargers.
Nevertheless, this role is perfect for the Panthers, who are expected to welcome the return of wide receiver D.J. Moore against a Packers team that ranks 20th in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA.
The Packers are scoring a league-best 31.5 points per game and ranks first in offensive DVOA and red-zone touchdown percentage, scoring on 77.1% of trips inside the 20-yard line. The Packers are also second in expected points added per play and first in total success rate (54%), led by Aaron Rodgers, who is in the midst of an MVP-caliber season.
Despite a prolific offense, the Packers defense is giving up 24.8 points per game. They’ve particularly struggled to stop the run, ranking 23rd in defensive rushing success rate — allowing 52% of runs to grade out successfully — while giving up 4.6 yards per carry, sixth-worst in the NFL.
While Mike Davis picks up yards on the ground, Bridgewater should have no problems throwing against this Packers defense that ranks 22nd in pressure rate (21.1%).
Overall, the Packers are the better team and looked poised to make a Super Bowl run as the first seed in the NFC. They should still win this game, however, my projections make them closer to 6.5-point favorites and I see this matchup finishing closer than the market indicates. It feels like we’re getting a few extra points of value based on the Panthers’ 32-27 home loss to the Broncos in Week 14.
At +8.5 (or better), I see this a positive expected value proposition on the Panthers.
Brandon Anderson: My eyes just about popped out of my head when I saw this line. Seattle is a 5.5-point favorite? Seattle is a favorite at all? That may sound crazy, but my projections had Washington as the slight favorite at home, making this a huge swing in potential value.
The Seahawks are pretty good. We know this is true. Russell Wilson probably isn’t going to win the MVP anymore, but he’s still having a terrific season, and his moonshot deep balls to D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have been shredding defenses all season.
Seattle is tied at the top of the NFC West and fighting for a home game and maybe even home field in the playoffs, with an outside shot at the 1-seed — a 3.1% chance, according to the Action Network model. They need this one and are coming off their most dominant win of the season, a 40-3 pantsing of the New York Jets.
The Washington Football Team are not the New York Jets. Two months ago, we might have thought otherwise, but Washington has been quite respectable and even good since then. Washington has won four games in a row to take the NFC East lead and can
Aaron Rodgers again has Packers in Super position in NFC. even get to .500 if the Football Team wins this one -- the last time they lost by more than a field goal was longer than two months ago, on October 11.
Washington is winning games with defense, particularly pass defense. The Football Tea’s pass rush lived in San Francisco’s backfield this past Sunday, and corners have gotten the job done most of the season, too. Metcalf and Lockett are another challenge altogether, but Washington’s terrific pass defense matches Seattle’s greatest strength: Its pass offense.
Weakness meets weakness, too, with Seattle’s pass defense ripe for the picking but Washington potentially unable to do so.
And that’s another reason this line seems a bit off to me -- we don’t know yet what’s happening with Alex Smith, and it’s possible Dwayne Haskins will have to make the start if Smith is out. Or it’s possible Smith could come back and swing this line a point or two in Washington’s direction. But should it? Smith has not been very good — a statue in the pocket — and it’s entirely possible Haskins is just as good or better at this point. He was the starter, after all.
This line appears boosted by Smith’s injury and by the recency bias of Seattle’s blowout win, and it could move back to a field goal or lower and cross that key number. I’ll grab these Washington points and expect its defense to make this game a grind and keep it close.