GOTTA GIVE ’EM PROPS!
With Super Bowl 55 around the corner, prop-betting season is naturally in full swing. And while most bettors are probably aware that the special, once-a-year prop options (Gatorade color, national anthem length, etc.) generally don’t hold any actual betting value, there’s no denying that they can add some enjoyment to the Super Bowl experience.
But this post is not so much about those novelty props as it is the ones that would be listed by sportsbooks as game props — think “Will there be overtime?” or “Will there be a safety?” — the sort of prop for which some historical research might actually tell us something about the value available, or, at the very least, how unfair the odds truly are.
Best “yes” odds: +1200 (DraftKings) The posed question is simple enough, and you can return a pretty sizable payout if the game does reach a fifth frame, but the question we’re really looking to answer is whether that payout is sizable enough.
The best odds available for the game to go to overtime (that I can find, at least) are +1200 from DraftKings — though you have to be a bit sneaky. You can find those +1200 odds by selecting “Tie” within the “Result at End of 4Q” offer in the Game Props section.
For a +1200 bet to worth betting, it needs to have at least a 7.7% chance of cashing.
So the question we’re looking to answer has now become whether this game has at least a 7.7% chance of going to overtime.
Will There Be a Safety?
Best “yes” odds: +850 (PointsBet)
The safety prop presents a similar, though slightly less juicy betting line, which might make sense at first glance considering you can probably recall a few memorable safeties in recent Super Bowl history — the ball being snapped past Peyton Manning on the first play of SB XLVIII and Tom Brady’s intentional grounding in the end zone in SB XLVI, to name a pair.
But +850 odds still require a 10.5% chance of cashing to be worth betting, so let’s get into the history of safeties.
Since 2001 — the last time there was a rule change regarding safeties — there have been 342 safeties in the 5,104 games played (playoffs included). That comes out to a rate of 6.7%.
The postseason has once again produced slightly greater figures, with the Super Bowl boasting an exceptionally high rate:
All playoff games (since 2001-02): 18 of 221 games (8.1%)
Super Bowls only: 9 of 54 (16.7%)
While you could argue that playoff-game jitters may lead to more flukey plays, I find that less convincing than the argument for more frequent overtimes.
Even if we put some weight into the playoff trend and call it, say, a 7.5% chance of a Super Bowl 55 safety, we’re talking about fair odds north of +1200 — which we aren’t near.
But again, the accompanying implied -1200 odds of there not being a safety do present value at books like William Hill, whose “No” odds sit at just -750.
They also give bettors another slight arbitrage opportunity when paired with the +850 “Yes” option at PointsBet.
Best “yes” odds: +250 (William Hill) Bear with me here ... or honestly, just skip to the bottom if you’re a normal person who doesn’t want to read an arithmetic ramble.
To get an accurate idea of the chance of a missed extra point, we need to first gauge the percentage of extra points that are missed (easy enough), and then come up with a number of extra points that we think will be attempted.
Since 2015, kickers have gone 6,875 for 7,329 on PATs — a 93.8% clip. Ryan Succop and Harrison Butker, specifically, have gone 203 for 218 (93.1%) and 186 for 199 (93.5%), respectively, over that time. And neither has really slouched in the postseason, either, with Succop going 11 for 12 (91.7%) and Butker 32 for 34 (94.1%).
Each team scores about 84% of their points via touchdowns (including PATs), so that puts Kansas City’s touchdown output at around 24.8 points, and Tampa Bay’s at 22.3. Divide each by seven and we’re looking at about 3.54 and 3.18 touchdowns apiece.
In theory, that should also be the number of extra-point attempts for each kicker, but let’s first note that over the past five Super Bowls there have been five two-point conversions attempted — so we remove one attempt from the total count by subtracting 0.5 off each figure.
Now we have Butker attempting 3.04 extra points with a 93.5% success rate, and Succop taking 2.68 at 93.1%. So the chance of the two combining for a perfect PAT day comes to... 0.9353.04 × 0.9312.68 = 67.3%. Which leaves a 32.7% chance of a miss — or fair odds of +206.
Whattaya know, value on a “yes” prop! Well, that is if you’re willing to trust the math of some guy on the internet.