STILL OPEN FOR BUSINESS!
Minus some huge stars, but with fans, U.S. Open is back
The U.S. Open is here, the fans are back, and now it gets really exciting. Not necessarily the tennis, which may or may not produce outsized drama without the biggest names present. But there is real suspense about how this massive spectator event will take place, now that tournament plans have been completely upended in the 11th hour.
For months, the U.S. Tennis Association insisted it could hold matches inside the mammoth Flushing Meadows stadiums without requiring either vaccinations or masks for fans. Officials said no precautions were necessary, even when the roofs were closed due to rain.
Indoors, they said, was not really indoors.
“Our roof, when it’s closed, the air filtration systems, the facility is deemed still an outdoor venue,” said Stacey Allaster, the tournament director.
The Mayor’s Office understandably did not buy such Wonderland logic, and on Friday mandated that all spectators 12 years old and older needed to provide proof of vaccination for entry. The only question is why the mayor waited so long to intervene. Now, you can expect lawsuits from fans demanding refunds, plus chaotic lines at the gates.
“The USTA will put in extra measures to expedite entrance to the site to reduce any inconveniences to our ticketholders,” the association declared, in a press release.
Good luck with that, and then there’s the other bummer: No Williams sisters, no Roger Federer, no Rafa Nadal, no men’s defending champion — who happens to be Dominic Thiem, if you happen to remember.
That leaves us with… plenty of stuff to write about. There are still issues, still personalities, still forehands and half volleys. Here are a few of the questions that need to be answered:
CAN NOVAK DJOKOVIC WIN THE GRAND SLAM?
Djokovic is a bit of a knucklehead and very few people actually enjoy watching him play tennis. He’s an admirable grinder, an infuriating ball-bouncer, not an artist. But if he wins the Open, Djokovic will have accumulated an in-year Grand Slam, plus a record 21 career major titles and a winning record against both Federer and Nadal. It will be very hard for anyone to de-GOAT him.
No male player has put together a Grand Slam in 52 years, since Rod Laver servedand-volleyed opponents into oblivion. It’s virtually impossible, especially the beating-Nadal-at-Roland Garros part. Chances are, Djokovic would already be on a four-major streak if he hadn’t been disqualified for whacking a lineswoman in the throat with a ball at the Open last year (yes, accidentally).
Djokovic is mortal, but only in best-of-three matches – like at the Tokyo Olympics, where he fell to Alexander Zverev. His draw at the Open does not appear particularly threatening. His path to the semifinal may include Jan-Lennard Struff, Kei Nishikori, Alex de Minaur, and Matteo Berrettini. Meh.
“I anticipate that he’s going to win the tournament, that’s what I anticipate,” said John McEnroe, commentating for ESPN. “I felt before Wimbledon started that he was going to win the Grand Slam. I felt like he was going to lose at the Olympics. The twoout-of-three format, just excessive travel, no fans, et cetera, I think contributed. I think the heat is the big thing. To me it’s going to be him against the field.
I pick him.”
CAN NAOMI OSAKA PULL IT TOGETHER?
Everybody is rooting for this Japanese star to find her form, while she battles anxiety, depression, and a wayward game. Osaka has somehow become a fragile and pitiable athlete, having dropped six of her last 11 matches to the likes of Maria Sakkari, Karolina Muchova, Jessica Pegula, Ana Bogdan, Marketa Vondrousova, and Jil Teichmann. Those players don’t really swim in her talent pool, but then Osaka is no longer the Osaka we saw sweeping through the Australian Open mere months ago.
She is complicated, above all else.
“It would be really cool if I could draw that line and be able to be like a robot Superman that could go on the court, focus just on tennis,” Osaka said. “But no, I’m the type that kind of focuses on everything at one time. That’s why everything is sort of muddled to me.”
Journalists who dare to ask Osaka anything but saccharine questions in the interview room, at this point, are certain to be vilified as bullies. That’s not fair, and not a good situation for anyone. Her tournament could easily veer in the wrong direction, yet she has a real shot. Osaka loves these hardcourts.
“It’s a little unpredictable,” Pam Shriver said. “But she’s going back to a place where she’s won it twice. Usually, when you have those kind of special memories, you can play some pretty good tennis.”
DO THE AMERICANS HAVE ANY CHANCE AT ALL?
In a word, yes. In two words, not much.
The U.S. men are forever too young, or too one-dimensional. Sebastian Korda and big-serving Reilly Opelka are the most promising of the lot, but aren’t ready to win a major. It’s been 18 long years since Andy Roddick won the Open, with his girlfriend Mandy Moore watching in the stands. Time flies. He’s wed Brooklyn Decker since then and they had two kids. Moore married two other men.
The American women are more
promising than the men, as usual. There are 22 in the draw, yet not all have been tearing up the tennis world of late. The highest-ranked U.S. woman is slugger Jennifer Brady, No. 14 in the world. Until further notice, Brady has a limited upside. Slumping Sofia Kenin, the 2020 Aussie Open champ, dropped out last week after testing positive for COVID.
Coco Gauff, is still just 17 and ranked a career-high 23rd in the world. Much is on her shoulders. Perhaps too much. She has handled everything remarkably so far. Open officials and ESPN badly need Gauff to create a narrative arc and some night-time mojo. One large pothole: Gauff likely will face resurgent Angelique Kerber in the third round. Kerber beat Gauff in straight sets at Wimbledon.
WHAT WILL BE THIS YEAR’S BIG CONTROVERSY?
Tennis is a fine tabloid sport, thriving on very public conflict. That’s what always made Serena such must-see TV at the Open. If she wasn’t threatening to stuff a ball down the throat of a lineswoman, she was telling off a chair umpire in no uncertain terms. Serena’s withdrawal is a loss not only because of her tennis, but also because of the theater she brings to Ashe Stadium.
Who can take her place? Nick Kyrgios will no doubt cause a stir of some sort, but he makes only cameo appearances at tournaments lately before losing in an early round. He could fall to 18th-seeded Roberto Bautista Agut in his opener. Danill Medvedev enjoys playing the role of bad wrestler to the New York crowd. Zverev has feuded with Stefanos Tsitsipas over bathroom breaks.
None of this rises to the intensity level of Serena’s melodramas. Most likely, the biggest controversy will involve the COVID crisis. Players have been given more freedom of travel and lodging, which might well lead to positive cases and withdrawals. They will be tested every four days. We won’t find out about the spectator transmission rate until weeks after the tournament.
HAVE WE SEEN THE LAST OF SERENA AND ROGER?
Here’s a good guess: Serena will be back, while Federer won’t want to play any more hardcourt, best-of-five tournaments. Serena already promised, “I’ll see you soon.” Federer doesn’t sound nearly as sure. He won the Open five times in his prime, but hasn’t advanced past the quarters since 2015. If he returns at all, it likely will be for a Wimbledon farewell.
Many, many years ago, Richard Williams predicted his two daughters would quit tennis before they turned 30. That definitely hasn’t happened, in either case. The sport, and the limelight, are addictive. Serena desperately wants to win another major. Those close to her say she is less obsessed with Margaret Court’s record of 24 majors than with winning one as a mother. Frankly, that possibility doesn’t look good.
running “Unfortunately, out,” Shriver time said. is “Since really she came back from maternity leave she did get to four major finals, unfortunately was never in one of them really, didn’t win a set in any of those four. My feeling is the depth of women’s tennis over seven matches under the conditions of the US Open on a hard court at this stage for Serena is not possible. I would love for her to prove me wrong. I just don’t have enough evidence that she’s going to be able to stay healthy in order to do what needs to be done, to win seven matches and be the last one standing.”
Instead, we get Ash Barty, Aryna Sabalenka and Simona Halep. Not one of them has threatened a lineswoman, or made Naomi Osaka cry, or won 23 majors.