EXPECT A PAT PLAYOFF PUSH
NFL betting: The oddsmakers see New England making noise in East
After Tom Brady took his talents to Tampa Bay last season, the Bills promptly ended the Patriots’ NFL-record run of 11 straight division titles.
With Cam Newton at quarterback, New England stumbled to 7-9 for its first losing record since 2000 — the year before Brady became starter — ending a stretch of 17 straight 10-win seasons.
Buffalo is the odds-on favorite (-175) at the Westgate SuperBook to repeat as AFC East champion. But oddsmakers expect New England to make a playoff push after Bill Belichick replenished the roster with an unprecedented spending spree in free agency, cut Newton and handed the reins to rookie quarterback Mac Jones, the 15th pick in April’s draft out of Alabama.
“He gives them a much better chance to win,” SuperBook vice president of risk Ed Salmons said.
New England, with a season win total of 9.5, is +120 to make the playoffs and the +375 second choice to reclaim the division crown.
“They’re going to be tough,” longtime Las Vegas bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich said. “They’re a team that relies on running, defense and special teams. As long as they get decent play at quarterback, they’ll be fine. Belichick’s the best coach in the game. Period.”
The Miami Dolphins are the +425 third pick to win the AFC East, and the Jets are 25-1 long shots.
“It’s one of the stronger divisions,” Bogdanovich said. “The Bills are every bit as good as the Chiefs. Miami and New England are going to be very good this year, and the Jets figure to be somewhat improved.”
The AFC East will be the first division since 1985 (AFC East) to open the season with four starting quarterbacks 25 years old or younger. Jones will turn 23 on Sunday. The Jets’ Zach Wilson is 22, Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa is 23 and Buffalo’s Josh Allen is 25.
Here’s a quick glance at the rest of the division:
BUFFALO BILLS
Season win total: 11 (o-135) Make playoffs (yes/no): -500/+395
Super Bowl odds: 12-1 Allen was fifth in the league in passing yards (4,544) and touchdown passes (37) last season. The Bills were third in the NFL in scoring (29.9 points per game) and went 13-3 before losing 3824 to Kansas City in the AFC championship game.
“The Bills are closer to the Chiefs than the Patriots are to the Bills,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “Their offense is as good as any offense in pro football.”
SuperBook bettors have pounded the Bills to go over their win total of 11.
“The public is betting Buffalo over 11 like it’s free money,” Salmons said. “They’re betting the Bills, Patriots and Dolphins over and the Jets under.”
MIAMI DOLPHINS
Season win total: 9 (o-125)
Make playoffs (yes/no): +130/-150
Super Bowl odds: 40-1 The Dolphins went 10-6 last season and missed the playoffs. They’re a mid-six figure Super Bowl liability at the South Point.
“Brian Flores is a really good coach,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said. “Tua’s a question mark. If he lives up to his potential, they can be a serious contender.”
Salmons isn’t sold on Tagovailoa.
“A lot of people aren’t high on Miami,” he said. “The more I watch Tua, I’m not convinced he’ll be a great NFL quarterback. He can be an average NFL quarterback, but for them to go to the Super Bowl, he needs to be great.”
JETS
Season win total: 5.5 (o-130) Make playoffs: +695/-1,000 Super Bowl odds: 225-1 Wilson, the No. 2 pick in the draft out of Brigham Young, and rookie coach Robert Saleh, the fiery former 49ers defensive coordinator, will try to reverse the fortunes of a franchise that went 2-14 last season and has one winning record in the last 10 years.
The Jets, last in the league in scoring in 2020 (15.2 ppg), are the 11-1 fourth choice at Circa Sports to have the most regular-season losses behind the Texans (+175), Lions (+425) and Jaguars (10-1).
“At least they look like a professional football team this year,” Salmons said. “Wilson threw the ball well in the preseason, and the coaching is so much better. Last year, it was like a clown show with Adam Gase.
“It seems obvious Wilson can play. He’s got a strong arm and can definitely make some plays. The Jets will definitely be improved from last year, though that’s not saying much.”
BEST BET
Damien Harris most regular-season rushing touchdowns (40-1 at BetMGM). Harris was Pro Football Focus’ second-highest-graded running back last season and should have plenty of chances to score after the Patriots parted ways with Sony Michel and Newton, who ran for 12 TDs last season.