They aren’t so Amazin’ in key spots at plate
The Mets’ Monday night loss to the Cardinals not only started the most must-win of must-win stretches on a bad foot, it also followed a tired and familiar script.
Trailing 3-0, the Mets put runners on base in each of the sixth, seventh, and eighth innings but could not get any of them in, eventually losing 7-0 when St. Louis produced the late-inning runs that escape the Mets so frequently.
Facing Adam Wainwright in the sixth, Jeff McNeil grounded out with Javier Baez at first base. That was a semi-productive out, as it moved Baez into scoring position, but Kevin Pillar’s line drive to left was snared for the third out.
Bad luck ruined the seventh when Jonathan Villar stung a 112 mile per hour line drive that had a .680 expected batting average, but it went right at second baseman Tommy Edman, who threw to first for a spectacularly Mets-ian double play.
In the eighth, with eruptive reliever Alex Reyes pitching for the Cardinals, the Mets put runners at first and third with nobody out. The next three hitters — Pete Alonso, Baez and McNeil — struck out swinging.
“We thought, like we’ve done in the past, we were going to come back and close the gap a little bit, tie the score or take the lead,” manager Luis Rojas said after letting another close one slip away. “Not the case tonight.”
Forget Monday night, that has not been the case all season.
The Mets have been poor at the plate all year, and in all situations, but incredibly so when the pressure is on. Their hellish performances could be the product of re-adjusting to a 162-game season with screaming fans in the seats again, blamed on the front office’s roster construction, or written off to several of their big-name players having down years at the same time. No matter what the root is, the club’s .707 overall OPS ranks 23rd in the league, and it’s worse when the margin for error is tighter.
Entering Tuesday’s action, the Mets have a .227 batting average and .685 OPS in situations that Baseball-Reference defines as high-leverage. According to OPS+, a statistic that always uses 100 as its baseline average, the Mets have been far below average in clutch situations. Their OPS+ in high-leverage situations is an abysmal 87. This crummy cocktail has spawned a 28-30 record in one-run games.
By comparison, the Atlanta Braves — the team that’s done a reverse Mets this season with a dramatic mid-summer turnaround — have a .754 OPS in high-leverage spots. Their OPS+ is 105, and they’ve done a much better job of avoiding the ultimate rally killer: double plays. In 967 high-leverage plate appearances, the Braves have hit into 29 double plays. The Mets have 58 in 1,219 such plate appearances, indicating both their futility when it matters most, but also just how often their inability to build or hold leads puts them in these difficult scenarios.
Simpler numbers also bring us to the same conclusion: These Mets are atrocious at getting the big hit. With two outs and runners in scoring position, they’re hitting .197/.295/.298. When they have the bases loaded, the Mets hit .213/.309/.328. In the seventh inning, they hit .228/.318/.386, and they’re even worse in the eighth (.222/.304/.364).
Rojas attributed the consecutive strikeouts that ended Monday’s eighth inning rally with runners at first and third — a situation where his team has hit .218/.313/.306 — to Reyes’ electric stuff. Sure, that’s true, Reyes threw each of the four hardest pitches in Monday’s game and pairs a 96 mph sinker with a 90 mph changeup. But with such a large sample size this deep into the season, one has to imagine that the offense’s failure to launch during crunch time is at least partially coming from between their ears.
“The 3-0 ballgame, when it was in range and we had momentum in the eighth inning, you could see the energy,” Rojas said, indicating that, at the very least, his hitters are trying. “We just didn’t come through. The guys are giving their best out there.” Unfortunately their best bat also picked a terrible time to go to sleep. Pete Alonso went hitless during last weekend’s Subway Series and is mired in an 0-for-16 slump. In addition to the eighth-inning K on Monday when he represented the tying run, Alonso also just missed tying the game in Saturday’s loss to the Yankees. His fly ball to center field off Albert Abreu couldn’t quite carry far enough to bring the Mets even, and they eventually lost 8-7.
“I did, I think our whole dugout did,” James McCann answered when asked if he thought Alonso’s ball was gone. “Off the bat, I definitely wasn’t the only one who thought he got it.”
Rojas couldn’t pin down a specific reason for his first baseman’s drought at the plate, but did rule out one classic cause of fallowness.
“Petey’s not pressing,” Rojas assured. “I think he has a good attitude toward struggles.”
In addition to the typical manager’s lines about frustration being natural and not getting too concerned over the results of one bad night, Rojas mixed in a sentiment popularized by a famous redheaded optimist.
“We’ll be alright tomorrow.” The problem is, the Mets are running out of tomorrows. After Tuesday’s round two with the Cardinals, they only have 16 more games left in the regular season, 12 of which are against National League teams ahead of them in the standings or the American League playoff hopefuls from Boston.
For the sake of everyone still watching this team, the Mets need to come up with at least a few lategame RBI, if not to steal a playoff spot, at least to end this stinky season on a somewhat positive note.