Disaster on the horizon
U.S. & Russia harden stances in Ukraine talks
The failure of last week’s highstakes diplomatic meetings to resolve escalating tensions over Ukraine has put Russia, the U.S. and its European allies in uncharted post-Cold War territory, posing significant challenges for the main players to avoid an outright and potentially disastrous confrontation.
Unlike previous disagreements that have arisen since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the current Ukraine crisis and seemingly insurmountable differences between Washington and Moscow carry real risks of debilitating economic warfare and military conflict that are exacerbated by the dangers of miscalculation and overreaction.
For the U.S. and its NATO and other European allies, nothing less than a vast pullback of the roughly 100,000 Russian troops now deployed near the Ukrainian border will prove that Russian President Vladimir Putin has any intention of negotiating in good faith.
For the Russians, the West’s absolute refusal to consider a ban on NATO expansion and the withdrawal of troops from Eastern Europe is proof of its perfidy.
Potential concessions are complicated by the fact neither Putin nor President Biden wants to be seen as backing down before either domestic or foreign audiences.
The refusal thus far by each side to climb down from what the other regards as unrealistic and maximalist demands has left the prospects for diplomacy in limbo, with the U.S. and its allies accusing Russia
of stoking tensions for no legitimate reason and the Russians complaining again the U.S. is the aggressor.
Some believe the situation will have to become even more dire before the impasse can be broken.
“The gap in perceptions is so broad that a new and dangerous escalation could be necessary to make the parties open up their imagination and search for agreements,” Fyodor Lukyanov, head of the Moscow-based Council for Foreign and Defense Policies, observed.
For Western analysts, it seems a situation in which Putin will have to compromise if conflict is to be avoided. Some think Putin’s focus on NATO, which has struggled for years with questions about its relevance, may have given the alliance a new lease on life.
“This is an extremely uncertain and tense period without an obvious way out unless Putin backs down,” said Jeff Rathke, a Europe
expert and ex-U.S. diplomat who is president of the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies at Johns Hopkins University.
“He’s talked himself into a frenzy that is hard to walk away from if he doesn’t get the fundamental redrawing of the European security architecture that he claims to want. He’s shown he’s ready to play chicken with the threat of massive military force to bring that about and he’s certainly gotten everyone’s attention, but he hasn’t changed anyone’s views,” Rathke said.
U.S. officials from Biden, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and national security adviser Jake Sullivan to chief negotiator Wendy Sherman have said it is Russia that faces a “stark choice.”
Deescalate or face punishing sanctions and the opposite of what it wants: an increased NATO presence in Eastern Europe and a more well-armed Ukraine.
Yet in Russia, officials say the
shoe is on the other foot. They have cast their demands as an “absolute imperative” and have argued that the Western failure to meet them makes talks on other issues irrelevant.
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Friday that Russia had vainly tried for years to persuade the U.S. and its allies to engage in talks on the nondeployment of intermediate-range missiles to Europe, limits on war games, and rules to avoid dangerously close encounters between Russian and allied warships and aircraft until the U.S. and NATO expressed willingness to discuss those issues last week.
He attributed the change in approach to a U.S. desire to shift attention away from Russia’s main demands, adding Moscow will focus on NATO nonexpansion.
And he insisted it’s the U.S. that’s formulating the position in talks while other allies just march on its orders.