Should be big step for Zach
Jets nation is going through the usual flow of the offseason, and optimism from Jets fans has swung inevitably toward delirium. Gang Green appeased its fanbase with a successful offseason, on paper, by fulfilling the obligation to surround Zach Wilson with more talent.
Gang Green is in phase three of the offseason with OTAs beginning this week to continue the momentum created on the field.
Prior to OTAs, here a mailbag answering questions regarding Wilson and the Jets.
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What makes you confident that Zach Wilson will take the next step as a QB? @omarkelly
Shout out to the great Omar Kelly from the Sun Sentinel with this question. I am not necessarily confident, but I’m lukewarm that Wilson will take another step. I’m a firm believer that the infrastructure surrounding a young quarterback usually makes or breaks him. The Jets offensive pieces alone should necessitate Wilson’s increased production. Wilson’s supporting cast isn’t devoid of talent now with three receivers in Corey Davis, a promising second-year talent in Elijah Moore, and the No. 10 overall pick wide receiver Garrett Wilson.
The Jets have two dynamic running backs in Michael Carter, who led the team in scrimmage yards last season, and Iowa State’s Breece Hall, who rushed for 50 touchdowns and almost 4,000 yards in three seasons. Free-agent signings Tyler Conklin and C.J. Uzomah should revive the tight end position as Conklin and Uzomah combined last season for 110 catches, 1,086 yards and eight touchdowns. And the offensive line on paper can be a top-12 unit.
Now how much of a step will Wilson take? That’s to be determined. And how big the step is will reveal if the Jets are a playoff team or not in 2022.
l What’s a realistic stats predictions for Zach going into this season @rellyyyrell
In Wilson’s rookie year he tossed nine touchdown passes for 2,334 yards with 11 interceptions and completed 55% of his throws. It was a rough debut.
So expecting Wilson to produce a Joe Burrow or Lamar Jackson second year is neither fair nor realistic. If it happens, great for Gang Green, but the standard shouldn’t hover around being a star quarterback.
So my early statline bar is 24 touchdowns, 3600 yards passing, fewer than 14 interceptions, a completion percentage of 65, which produces a passer rating of 90.
Looking at 2021 stats for
NFL quarterbacks, the passer rating would slot him within the top 20, the touchdown total hypothetically places him within the top 15, and the passing yards lists him within the top 16. Those are fair numbers for him to reach, which is a drastic improvement from 2021. The expectation is to mushroom into a top-20 QB in year two. l
Who takes the biggest step, offense or defense this year? @TimecopMeltdown
The defense because it was an abomination in 2021, so there’s significantly more room for growth. If the defense holds offenses to 25 points, some fans will throw a parade after the grueling flashbacks of the defense allowing 40 points multiple times along with a 50-burger last year.
This unit received the most infusion of talent in the offseason. Joe Douglas added cornerback D.J Reed, safety Jordan Whitehead, and defensive end Jacob Martin in the early stages of free agency. Then he drafted Cincinnati’s Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner and Florida State’s Jermaine Johnson in the first round.
Also, Gang Green welcomes back Carl Lawson and LaMarcus Joyner, who both missed the majority of the season with injuries. So that’s six to seven new starters to pair with cornerstone pieces in Quinnen Williams, John Franklin-Myers and C.J Mosley.
The additions to the 32ndranked defense in terms of yards and points should propel the unit into a top 20 group.
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Do you want Zach running more? If so, how many rushing yards and how many TDs? @AjDatboi
I don’t want Wilson running that much more. He’s not physically built to be a consistent threat in the run game and it could lead to unnecessary punishment and injuries.
Running occasional read options is fine to trick the defense and keep it off balance.
A comp for the type of running Wilson should do is what Patrick Mahomes does. Mahomes isn’t a part of the Chiefs’ run game (he rushed for 689 yards in the last two years), but when he scrambles, he causes damage as he’s totaled 47 first-down runs in the past two seasons. Wilson being a threat in the run game like Mahomes is more efficient for the Jets.