Provide big test for both Mets and Bombers
(41-25) behind the Yankees and are poised for their sixth straight postseason appearance. With the Angels’ star-studded roster and the Mariners retooling during the offseason, skeptics started to speculate about the end of the Astros’ reign of terror. Both the Angels and Mariners have been wildly disappointing in their own ways, and Houston has shown no signs of slowing down despite aging, injuries and losing one of the faces of its fabled but ongoing run at the top.
When Carlos Correa walked out the door in March, he opened it for Jeremy Pena, his 24-year-old replacement at shortstop. Pena and his .277/.333/.471 slash line with nine home runs makes him one of the early frontrunners for Rookie of the Year and, more importantly, extends the Astros’ championship window for what feels like an eternity. Not many teams could withstand a loss of Correa’s magnitude, brush it off, and win 41 of their first 66 games. As the last half decade has proved, though, most teams are not the Astros, who seem to grow elite talent.
That’s what happened with Yordan Alvarez, the latest and greatest behemoth in the Astros’ lineup. Originally signed by the Dodgers, the Cuban slugger was traded to Houston before ever appearing in a minor-league game for L.A. Alvarez went to the Astros in a win-now move in 2016, as he was a fresh 19-year-old and the Dodgers wanted to win a World Series. The man he was traded for, reliever Josh Fields, did help the Dodgers reach the Fall Classic in 2017. Unfortunately, he surrendered three hits (two of which left the yard) and two earned runs in that 2017 World
Series without recording an out, posting the dreaded infinite ERA. The Dodgers’ opponent in that seven-game showdown? The Astros.
While that ring will forever be tainted, Pena and Alvarez’s production is not. The two have paired up for 5.3 Wins Above Replacement this season — more than Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton and Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor’s combined totals — and neither Pena nor Alvarez have blown out 25 candles yet. We haven’t even mentioned Kyle Tucker yet, who just turned 25 and leads the team in stolen bases while also ranking eighth among AL position players in WAR.
It’s not quite an A to B connection like Pena taking over for Correa, but Alvarez and Tucker have been more than effective tourniquets on the George Springer wound. Springer bolted after the 2020 season and the Astros have not missed a beat, getting both younger and more right-left balanced. Of course, holdovers Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Michael Brantley are still in the mix. Each member of that trio has a wRC+ above 112.
On the pitching side, the Astros haven’t gotten a single inning from Lance McCullers Jr. this season as he makes his way back from a forearm problem. Veteran starter Jake Odorizzi was also carted off the field in his seventh start of the year. Not to worry, Justin Verlander has found his old form in his age39 season. The future Hall of Famer made all of one start in 2020 before missing all of 2021 with injury. This year, he’s gotten back on the horse to post a 2.30 ERA in his first 13 appearances, becoming Houston’s best pitcher despite the lowest strikeout rate of his Astros tenure.
For the Yankees, who are slated to throw Jameson Taillon, Luis Severino, Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes Jr. in the four-game series, the Astros are actually not a terrible matchup. Houston grades as below average against two major pitch types: cutters and changeups. Each of those four Yankee pitchers throws a cutter on more than 10% of their pitches, and each of Taillon, Severino and Cole offer a changeup that causes whiffs more than 20% of the time.
Nobody breathes easily when playing the defending AL champs. But if anyone is equipped to take them down, it’s the Yankees and Mets. Both are among the best in the game, full stop, but they also have the personnel to bring the Space City boys back to earth.