I’m the mega-MAGA man
After Iowa, Trump looks to wrap up GOP primary fight in N.H.
Former President Donald Trump is eyeing a chance to practically wrap up the presidential Republican nomination with a victory in the New Hampshire primary next week after a solid win in the Iowa caucus, analysts said Tuesday.
Even as he faces four criminal trials and 91 felony indictments, Trump proved in Iowa that he has more than enough support among the party’s conservative base to dominate rivals Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis.
Things will likely be a bit tougher for the MAGA leader in New Hampshire, where moderate and independent-minded voters give Haley a shot at slowing Trump’s momentum.
But if Trump can win the Granite State, he would stake a claim as the all-but-inevitable winner of the primary contest.
“The results in Iowa were a dominant victory for Trump, and underscore how difficult it will be for any Republican candidate to defeat him,” said Jacob Rubashkin, an analyst with Inside Elections.
“Sweeping Iowa and New Hampshire would show that Trump retains … more than enough support to finish well ahead of his rivals in different kinds of states,” added Kyle Kondik, a University of Virginia political analyst and editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
Some naysayers pointed to the underwhelming nature of Trump’s win, with just a hair under half the GOP Iowa caucusgoers picking someone else other than the man who won the nomination the last two times.
Turnout was also abysmal. That could suggest a lack of enthusiasm for Trump among some segments of the GOP electorate like college-educated affluent suburbanites, although daunting weather also undoubtedly kept some people home.
But both of those arguments are mostly more relevant to a looming general election contest against President Biden.
It’s hard to argue with a 30-point victory margin, especially with Trump’s two main rivals vowing to stay in the race and presumably keep sniping at one another at least as much as at him.
Haley sought to project political strength Wednesday by vowing not to participate in any more GOP debates that do not include Trump, meaning there may be no more Republican primary debates. DeSantis slammed her as a coward.
Outspoken conservative entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out of the race shortly after the Iowa results were called and endorsed Trump, while former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson also pulled the plug on his anemic campaign.
Even though Haley finished third in Iowa, some still see a narrow path for her to scramble the race with a victory in New Hampshire, where recent polls have shown her within striking distance of Trump.
Haley, the former UN ambassador, would then have a month to pound Trump as a wounded leader in the runup to a faceoff in her home state of South Carolina at the end of February.
“If [Haley] is able to win New Hampshire, South Carolina will turn into a bloodbath over the 32 days between the contests,” said Alex Stroman, a veteran South Carolina Republican operative.
DeSantis, the current Florida governor avoided what would have been a humiliating third-place showing by edging out Haley in Iowa, beating ever-declining expectations for his once-promising campaign.
But analysts questioned whether that result would do much more than buy time for DeSantis after he staked his campaign on winning over Iowa’s trademark evangelical voters.
He wound up getting picked apart by the former president in the Hawkeye State and is polling in single digits in New Hampshire.
Conservative critics of Trump urged DeSantis to drop out, echoing The Wall Street Journal editorial page that pleaded with him to “leave the race and give Haley a chance to take on Trump one-on-one.”
Even it Haley got that shot, the smart money says Trump would obliterate her in a head-to-head battle — Republican voters have backed him for president twice already, and there are few signs they will abandon him now.
“It’s been all over for several months,” Rubashkin said.