WITH HANK GOLA
Time for Nets to take a hard look at Spencer
Saturday, 4:30 p.m., Ravens by 8.5, 44.5
These teams opened the season against each other in Baltimore with the Ravens expected to annihilate the young Texans, with no one yet knowing what C.J. Stroud would become. The Ravens covered the 1 0 -point spread but the Texans didn’t exactly roll over. Houston actually outgained Baltimore on the day but the Ravens pulled away with two third-quarter TDs from Justice Hill.
It seems, then, like a lot of points to hand the upstart Texans but the concern is the weather. It’s Stroud’s first outdoor game since the Jets shut him down at chilly, rainy MetLife Stadium in Week 1 4 . It shouldn’t rain or snow in the Charm City Saturday, but wind could be a big factor. There is little doubt that the Ravens, with a power running game that includes Lamar Jackson (1 -3 in playoffs), are better equipped to handle the conditions. Stroud relies more on the deep passing game than Jackson, who will have Mark Andrews back on intermediate routes and can use WR Zay Flowers to attack former teammate SS DeAndre Houston-Carson, signed off the Ravens’ practice squad around Halloween. Stroud will need some help from what many think is a non-existent running game but, given Baltimore’s uncharacteristic issues defending it, we can see Devin Singletary having some success. Houston’s run defense is a strength. DeMeco Ryans has his team flying to the ball so that will be an important showdown. There is little doubt the Ravens will win but John Harbaugh’s teams historically don’t protect fourth-quarter leads and Stroud is capable of marching through the back door. The Ravens are on, essentially, three weeks rest, and the last time they were in this spot, it did not work out well. Then again, this seems like a different Ravens team. They are firing on all cylinders, and they have an edge. They’ve been here before. The Texans haven’t. It’s a Ravens lean, a very cautious Ravens lean.
Ravens and the over.
Saturday, 8:15 p.m., 49ers by 9.5, 50.5
Let’s get the total out of the way first. It’s much too high. The Packers scored two defensive TDs in Dallas followed by a bunch of garbage time points. Jordan Love isn’t going to have that kind of field day against the Niners’ defense and the 4 9 ers aren’t going to be throwing it all day when it can attack the soft Green Bay run defense with Christian McCaffrey.
Watch the injury report for Jaire Alexander, who re-aggravated his ankle in Dallas. You saw how valuable he was in containing CeeDee Lamb and if he can’t go, Brock Purdy will likely use all those crossers to spread out and shred the Packers’ zone defense, against which Brandon Aiyuk should be particularly effective. The Pack is playing its fourth road game in five weeks and may not have much left in the tank. In general, Green Bay’s defense stepped up late in the season, but we are reminded of a couple of clunkers against the Giants and Panthers. Kyle Shanahan’s offensive schemes tax a defense’s mental awareness and this Packers D is among the youngest in the league. No one in the NFL is better in gaining yards after the catch than the 4 9 ers and, given the emotions of a home playoff game after a week off, they are going to make the Packers tackle. As for Green Bay’s red hot offense, the Niners are not going to allow Aaron Jones to get going and that will allow them to put Love in bad down and distance spots. Unlike the Cowboys, they will cover people.
One cautionary note. No. 1 -seeded teams are always overvalued because of their reputation and the week’s rest. Playoff teams coming off the bye after losing the last game of the season have covered just three of the last 1 8 games in this situation. But the Niners have been a front-running team. Eleven of the 1 2 4 9 er wins have been by double digits.
4 9 ers and the under.
3 p.m., Lions by 6, 48.5
There is a lot of unpredictability here because both teams have shown two different versions of themselves all season, largely based on the performance of the two quarterbacks.
The Week 6 matchup in Tampa is deceiving. The Bucs held the beat-up Lions to a season-low 2 0 points to their six as Baker Mayfield missed three potential TD passes. The question is are we going to see that Baker Mayfield or the Mayfield who was on point last week? Yes, the Eagles didn’t show up and the Lions will (some think they celebrated too hard last week but Dan Campbell’s teams usually show up). But the Lions ranked 2 7 th against the pass and have allowed 3 6 7 , 3 9 6 , 3 4 5 yards in their last three games. They must now deal with another outstanding receiving corps that includes Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and deep threat Trey Palmer with a QB who has thrown for seven TDs with just one INT in his playoffs career and now has an opportunity for a career moment. The Lions beat the Rams because they were so good in the red zone. Admittedly, the Bucs have struggled there all year, hence a quandry. Then there is Jared Goff. We are going to see how he will respond to the blitz because Todd Bowles is going to keep bringing it and Goff’s history against pressure isn’t good. We saw that the few times the Rams, with a one-man pass rush, were able to crowd him last week. It’s likely Tampa Bay will be able to coax a few dumb throws out of him. The Bucs were 8 -1 ATS on the road and the short week travel will be negated somewhat because they had an easy time of it Monday night. The Lions are only 5 -5 ATS at home, all games combined and they tend to disappear at times. Their motto is about grit, but the Bucs have it too, enough to keep this game close.
Bucs and the under.
The Nets have to find a way to find comfort in life’s simpler pleasures at this point, because their season grows more trivial with each passing game. They blew an 11-point lead in the fourth quarter on Wednesday night, eventually falling 105-103 in Portland. It was their fourth straight loss, dropping them to eight games under .500 (16-24) for the first time since 2019.
The Lakers and Clippers are up next on the schedule to conclude the team’s three-game West Coast swing. Yeah, good luck with that. The lowly Trail Blazers just beat Brooklyn twice in a
10-day span. Portland is in 14th place in the Western Conference standings.
One of the simpler pleasures for the Nets on Wednesday night was the play of Spencer Dinwiddie. At least he showed up, right? The guard had been playing awful basketball in recent weeks. While every player goes through the occasional shooting slump, at times his body language and lack of consistent tenacity was that of a guard who was down-right disinterested in winning.
Dinwiddie was shooting just 32.2% from the field and 26% from deep entering Wednesday night, was benched in the fourth quarter against Miami and Cleveland and had the worst field goal percentage in the league at 38.7%. Speaking to reporters ahead of Monday’s loss to Miami, head coach Jacque Vaughn was pleading for Dinwiddie to stop settling for 3-pointers and attack the basket more as one of the only players on the roster capable of getting into the paint and breaking down opposing defenses off the dribble.
But Dinwiddie was the man for the Nets on Wednesday, although it took him a while to get going. He went scoreless in the first half but responded over the final 24 minutes by pouring in 19 points on 5-of-8 shooting — his highest-scoring half of the season. Dinwiddie did settle for 3-pointers early but finished 3-of-4 from behind the arc. He was aggressive attacking the paint, too, getting to the free throw line seven times and knocking down six attempts.
And Dinwiddie saved his best for the fourth quarter, where he scored nine of his points, including a few clutch buckets down the stretch. That is the version of Dinwiddie Brooklyn desperately needs. Aggressive. Efficient. Engaged. He even chipped in seven dimes to just one turnover in the loss.
Dinwiddie accounted for 45% of the Nets’ points in the fourth quarter, although they were ultimately outscored, 31-20, in the final frame. That is the kind of reliable play fans grew accustomed to seeing from Dinwiddie this season. But that player had been missing in action until Wednesday night.
“Thought he was seeing the floor well tonight, spraying the basketball, getting us organized,” Vaughn said. “But he has an ability to get downhill and get to the rim, draw fouls, which he was able to tonight. It was good to see him aggressive, in the flow and playing to his capabilities.”
Who knows if this is a sign of resurgence for the 6-5 guard. The Nets’ fan base certainly has not been kind to him in recent weeks. Because of his poor play, Dinwiddie has been a hot commodity in different trade rumors lately as fans campaign for an upgrade at the point guard position. A potential pairing of the Nets and Atlanta’s Dejounte Murray has been picking up steam. The 30-year-old’s contract is set to expire after this season and Brooklyn is unlikely to re-sign him to a new deal at this rate, so perhaps the grass will be greener for him elsewhere. He probably would not mind a fresh start, either. His potential departure would also lead to more opportunities for reserve guard Dennis Smith Jr., who was averaging 9 points, 4.5 rebounds, 5.6 assists and 1.6 steals this season entering Wednesday when he plays at least 20 minutes per game — something that has happened only 12 times this season.
If Dinwiddie ultimately does not want to be in Brooklyn then a divorce would obviously be best for both parties.
But Dinwiddie’s situation will likely be addressed in the coming weeks. And as long as he is on the roster, Vaughn has to find a way to get the most out of him on a nightly basis, and Dinwiddie probably has some soul searching to do himself. Because when he is aggressive, efficient and engaged, he has proven throughout his career that he is capable of being an impact player. Brooklyn fans know that firsthand from his first stint with the team from 2016-21.
However, right now Dinwiddie cannot seem to get right consistently, nor can the Nets, who have now lost 14 of their last 17 games. He should though. Finding more consistency will only bolster his value and make him a more impactful player for the Nets. Or another NBA team, should general manager Sean Marks decide to move him before the Feb. 8 trade deadline.