IT COULD BE A TWO-MAN JOB
Can the Harbaugh brothers finally end the Chiefs’ monopoly on the AFC?
The Chargers’ hiring of Jim Harbaugh has more potential to shift the NFL’s power balance than any other change this cycle.
That’s not just because he is coming off a national championship at Michigan. And it’s not just because he won 69.5% of the 64 San Francisco 49ers games he coached from 2011 to 2014.
It’s also because Harbaugh has entered the AFC West, where improving the Chargers may threaten Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs’ dominance over the conference and league.
Come to think of it, Harbaugh’s younger brother, Baltimore Ravens head coach John Harbaugh, has a chance to start bringing the incredible Mahomes back down to Earth in Sunday’s AFC Championship Game.
Then that could set the table for Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers to make life more difficult on the Chiefs’ road back here in 2024.
See, Mahomes is playing in his sixth straight AFC title game on Sunday. He has won two Super Bowls. He is on the verge of playing in his fourth Super Bowl in five years. And one of the reasons is that he has a ridiculous 30-5 regular season division record in six years as a starter.
Mahomes is 12-1 in his career against the Denver Broncos, 10-2 against the Raiders and 8-2 in against the Chargers. He has thrown 55 touchdown passes to nine interceptions in his 22 games against the Raiders and Chargers.
That helped the Chiefs earn three AFC No. 1 overall playoff seeds and finish no lower than No. 2 in the conference regular season standings during the five seasons from 2018 through 2022.
This year, with the Chiefs as the AFC’s No. 3 seed, Mahomes played a road playoff game for the first time. And of course he ripped the Buffalo Bills’ hearts out, 2724, to set up Sunday’s showdown with Lamar Jackson’s Ravens in Baltimore.
He’s only lost twice in his 12 home playoff games: once to Tom Brady’s Patriots and once to Joe Burrow’s Cincinnati Bengals.
But if it can be safely assumed that Jim Harbaugh is going to improve the Chargers’ fortunes with Justin Herbert as his quarterback — in a division with Sean Payton’s retooling Denver Broncos and Antonio Pierce’s galvanized Raiders — then it’s possible Andy Reid and Mahomes will have a much tougher time clearing their path to more Super Bowls in the near future.
Harbaugh went 15-8-1 in the NFC West with the 49ers a decade ago and will understand how to build his team quickly to be a competitive challenger in the AFC counterpart now.
And just maybe the Harbaughs will make stopping Mahomes a family affair beginning on Sunday, with Chiefs star left guard Joe Thuney (pec) out, Ravens tight end Mark Andrews (ankle) in, and top-seeded Baltimore on the verge of its first Super Bowl berth since 2012.
BELICHICK MAY BE OUT FOR 2024
Raheem Morris’ hiring by the Atlanta Falcons means Bill Belichick does not appear to have a seat at the NFL’s coaching table for 2024.
Our best, educated guess is that the Washington Commanders will hire Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and the Seattle Seahawks will tab Dallas Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn. That would fill all of the league’s existing vacancies.
Belichick, 71, might end up better off if teams like the Cowboys, Eagles, Giants and Bears have vacancies a year from now that he could fill. It has been noticeable this month, though, that Belichick’s free agency did not create a seismic shift in the leaguewide coaching circuit.
It certainly would seem to make sense for the Giants to pursue the greatest coach of all time while he’s available. They’ve interviewed and hired so many of his proteges. Now Belichick himself is a free agent. But that wouldn’t necessarily be a match.
Their mutual affinity and respect aside, Belichick would require a level of control and say over changes that probably would make the Giants uncomfortable. The Falcons obviously weren’t enamored with Belichick’s proposed plan to change their operation and trajectory despite his proven track record, either.
In a lot of ways, Belichick’s surprisingly subdued start to free agency is reminiscent of how Tom Brady only really ended up in extensive talks with two teams when he broke from New England in 2020: the Raiders and Buccaneers.
In one way it will seemingly be very different, however: Brady signed in Tampa that 2020 spring and won a Super Bowl in his first year in Florida. Belichick, at least
for now, is on course to be out of the league the following season.
AROUND THE LEAGUE
It is not a stretch to envision Dan Campbell, Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions upsetting the San Francisco 49ers on their home field in Sunday’s NFC Championship Game. A lot of it may hinge on Deebo Samuel. The dynamic 49ers receiver will be active, and if he can play effectively through his bruised shoulder, Detroit will have a difficult time slowing down San Francisco’s offense. But if Samuel is limited, and the Niners are one-dimensional with Christian McCaffrey, the Lions will hang around and have a chance to win late. … It has been interesting to watch so many organizations hire young, first-time head coaches while Belichick, Mike Vrabel and Pete Carroll hover on the market. The Patriots’ Jerod Mayo, 37, the Titans’ Brian Callahan, 39, the Panthers’ Dave Canales, 42, and the Raiders’ Pierce, 45, have all secured jobs with Morris, 47, getting his second chance. … Our Professional Football Writers of America 2023 NFL season votes: MVP: Jackson (Ravens). Offensive player: McCaffrey. Defensive player: Browns edge Myles Garrett. Rookie of the year: Texans QB C.J. Stroud. Comeback player: Bucs QB Baker Mayfield. Most improved player: Packers QB Jordan Love. Coach of the year: Harbaugh (Ravens). Executive of the year: Lions GM Brad Holmes. Assistant coach of the year: Texans OC Bobby Slowik. … Super Bowl matchup prediction: Ravens-Lions (famous last words to pick against the Chiefs).
THEY SAID IT
“I don’t like competing against him at all.” — Jackson, the Ravens QB, on what he likes about playing against Mahomes